WHEN SHOULD WE EXPECT THE NEXT BLIZZARD?

SOURCE: The Washington Post

As the holidays rapidly approach us, the question of the next big snowstorm lingers over our heads. When exactly can we expect to pull out the snow shovels and snow boots? How should you start preparing?

Although not entirely accurate, anyone with a 2013-2014 Farmer Almanac can tell you this winter is going to be a blustery, wet and snowy one. This winter forecast has already been compared to the 2010 snowpocalypse but how bad will it really be? One thing is for certain in the reports, the Northwest is expected to have a cold snowy start with the heavy snow early into winter, but it is predicted that the Northeast will have to wait later into the season for the white fluffy stuff.  However, we can expect temperatures to be much lower than the average throughout the winter season.



SOURCE: The Weather Channel

How can we be so sure?

When making winter forecasts, it’s key to examine patterns and trends. Whether it be patterns from past winter storms and seasons or global wide-scale weather patterns, all of these should be taken into account. While looking at global weather patterns, one must study the effects of El Nino and La Nina.

SOURCE: National Weather Service Quad Cities Winter 2013-14 Outlook. The positive phase (left) and negative phase (right) of the Arctic Oscillation.

Currently we are under the effects of a weak La Nina. A weak La Nina forecast indicates an unusually wetter winter season with more snow in the Eastern part of the U.S. “The evolving La Niña will shape this winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.  “There is a wild card, though. The erratic Arctic Oscillation can generate strong shifts in the climate patterns that could overwhelm or amplify La Niña’s typical impacts.” The Arctic Oscillation is an index of positives and negatives. While the index is positive cold air stays locked up in the higher latitudes, but when the index is negative cold polar air blasts through the middle latitudes. The AO is very hard to predict this far in advance and it will be a deciding factor for how severe our winter will be. The large-scale climate patterns will be key in help guiding the upcoming weather systems around the country.

What does this mean for us at Mason?

For us here at Mason, we should expect plenty of colder than average days and snow throughout the beginning of second semester and throughout the month of February.

Don’t forget to always think ahead!

When you hear about a winter storm approaching the area, make sure you are prepared. Prepare by stocking up on food that is non-perishable just in case we temporary lose power and in case it’s too stormy to leave your dorm. Before a large storm hits make sure to charge your cell phone, laptop and other batteries you may need. Also, if at all possible try to avoid the roads during a heavy snowfall or an icy wintery-mix.  And of course follow Forecast GMU for all winter weather updates!

-Katie