ForecastGMU: Lake-Effect Snow Blasts Buffalo, NY

By now I am sure you have seen the incredible photos of record-breaking snowfall in the Lake Erie snowbelt. Some locations have seen anywhere between 3-6 feet of snow from one storm. You may have heard this is the result of lake-effect snow. This region is no stranger to lake-effect snow, so why is this snowstorm being coined “the worst in recent memory”?

To begin, lake-effect snow occurs when cold air moves over the warmer waters of the Great Lakes. As the system moves over these large bodies of water it picks up water vapor, enriching the air with moisture. It then freezes and descends on the leeward shores.

What makes this event the worst in 40 years?

(Photo/ Twitter User @JeffreySuhr)

The wind direction and temperature difference are the major influencers to the extreme amounts of snowfall that we have witnessed. The wind plays a prominent role in this weather dynamic because of the constant direction the wind blows during a storm. Since the wind direction did not change, locations, like Buffalo and surrounding counties in western New York, received the brunt of the snow bands. The sizeable temperature difference of the frigid air aloft and the warm surface water provide an unstable atmosphere optimal for rapid snow production. It is typical for November snowstorms to produce large snowfall totals because the lake temperatures are relatively warmer than the latter months of winter. This provides a larger temperature differentiation. Also, the air aloft is warmer therefore allowing it to hold more moisture and yield more snow. Some locations in south Buffalo have witnessed thunder snow. Buffalo has not seen this much snowfall within such a small timeframe in 40 years!

So what happens next?

(Twitter User @TrainerAmyIndy)

This lake-effect snow event is forecasted to occur in two rounds. The first round of snowfall started this past Tuesday. The second round of lake-effect snow resumes Thursday. Overnight Wednesday, snow bands regenerated over the warm Great Lakes. Snow will continue to fall throughout Thursday; another 2-3 feet of snow is expected for the Lake Erie snowbelt region. Some locations will begin to see snow taper off as early as Friday, whereas other locations will have to wait until Saturday to see the snowfall diminish. Over the weekend snow may transition to rain as temperatures raise above the freezing mark, which will bring up another major concern—flooding. While the snow melts, flooding will become an issue. With over 6 feet of snow already on the ground in some places, the average person is having trouble removing the enormous amounts of snow that have already accumulated. As you can see from photos, the ordinary snow blower and shovelers are in way over their heads.

(Twitter User @HowardManges)

This storm system has unfortunately turned deadly. Photos show how the power and weight of the snow can actually burst through doors and windows. Residents have to also worry about roof collapses due to the tremendous weight of wet snow. The Mayor of Buffalo has warned citizens to not be fooled by the break in between rounds and issued a driving ban for all nonessential vehicles. The snow has already resulted in ten confirmed deaths. The Governor of New York has declared several counties in a state of emergency and the National Guard troops are in place to assist with snow removal and rescuing stranded motorists and homeowners who can’t dig out.

Here are some more incredible photos!