Winter Storm Pax

Update: 5:30pm

Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Fairfax from 7pm EST Wednesday until 10pm EST Thursday

Within the last couple hours this storm has gone from possible system to definitive Winter Storm. The winter weather watch calls for much more intense conditions than I originally forecasted. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph and wind gusts upwards of 40 mph are very likely which means near white-out conditions. The timing to the storm stays relatively the same with the bulk of the storm passing late Wednesday night well into the day Thursday. What needs to be watched though is the exact track of the low pressure as it moves up the coast. This track could have tremendous impacts on how the snow total amounts throughout the region. The variance of these tracks is still too high to have definitive totals. It is certain though that there will be snow within the time period stated above. The main travel impacts will be on Thursday morning during rush hour.



Here is my rough forecast for the storm; we will have way more advanced analysis by this evening

Tuesday Night: Clear skies, very cold temperatures. Low near 10 degrees. Winds out of the North

Wednesday Morning: Mostly sunny turning cloudy through the day. Temperature climbing to near 30. Winds shifting to out of the NE

Wednesday Afternoon: Snow will begin light and even flurry all afternoon. Accumulations less than 1 inch

Wednesday Night: Snow will pick up significantly especially after midnight.  Accumulation at this time 2-4 inches. Temperature stabilizing near 27

Thursday Morning: Snow will continue through the morning hours, could shift to rain/snow mix towards midday. Temperatures below freezing through the morning hours Total snow accumulation 4-8 inches

Thursday Afternoon: Snow/ Rain showers through the afternoon, diminishing by early evening. High near 35

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy skies clearing late, Winds out of the NW near 10-20 mph.  Temperatures near 25

Again this system has not even truly developed yet so making predictions is just going to be based off of the several model runs that are being done through the National Weather Service. We will do our very best to keep you updated with a more detailed report of this storm this evening.

-James