Hurricane Arthur: What you need to know

Our first hurricane of the season is upon us. Earlier this week, it initialized in the Caribbean near the Bahamas and now has strengthened off the eastern coast of Florida.  This storm intensified in the warm waters of the Atlantic and has started its trek up the Eastern Seaboard. Right now as we speak, Arthur is a tropical storm with a strong potential to reach the hurricane status by later tonight. That being said, the storm is quickly materializing with sustained winds at around 70mph. The pressure has dropped to 988mb. 

Satalitte image of Arthur

Here are the 5 things you need to know about this storm for tomorrow and Friday.

1.     Where will it impact? –The eye of the storm right now directly East of Jacksonville, Florida. It is moving due North at a slow speed of 8 mph. Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warnings have been for regions stretching from Myrtle Beach to the south all the way up to Virginia Beach. The main impact of the storm though is supposed to be around the region North and South of the Outer Banks/Cape Hatteras area. After the initial impact along these Southeastern beach regions, the storm will use the prevailing westerlies and move farther out to sea. Thus, it will miss affecting the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern regions. 

2.     What will be the main impact? As this storm is only going to be potentially a Category 1 storm. The impacts of winds are going to be relatively low. Also the storm will not be that close to the shoreline even at its peak impact, so only a mild to moderate rise in surf is to be expected. Strong heavy bands of rain is going to be the main factor that will be of concern especially on Thursday going into Friday. Rain from this storm will be felt towards the Northeast as well. There may be some coastal flooding involved with this storm. Also strong rip currents and rougher seas mean that an evacuation is in effect beginning at 5 am Thursday for the Cape Hatters region. 

Map of the probability of Tropical Storm force winds. The redder the color the more likely. (NOAA)

 

3.      Should I be worried about cancelling my 4^th of July plans?-Not really, unless you live in the Virginia Beach/Chesapeake areas. If you do live in that region expect heavy rain, wind and stormy conditions in the early evening with clearing conditions later on at night. The storm is expected to be moving out to sea by the Fourth and not truly make full landfall luckily. This could change though so stay tuned, but most of the model runs have a northeasterly track of the storm on Friday.  The Boston Pops Fourth of July special has been moved to Thursday as they are preemptively playing it safe.  

Rainfall ranging from 1-6+ inches from this storm. Coastal Flooding very likely in areas. (AccuWeather)

4.     When will it be the worst? Katie has highlighted a detailed timeline for various locations in her article. 

5.     Is this a sign first hurricane of the season a sign of things to come? Hurricane season is just in its infancy and it is truly hard to tell what this coming season will bring. Surely it is a historically early start for named storms. Predictions have that this year will not be as active of a year for hurricanes in the Atlantic. It is hard to tell though so we will have to wait and see.

This is our first taste of the 2014 hurricane season.  Though the timing the thought of a hurricane seems daunting this storm should not pose too large of a threat for the coastal areas of the Southeast. 

There will be more information about incoming hurricanes and tropical storms this season in our Hurricane Update section of the blog. 

-James