Update: (10:00am James)
As I expected, overnight with the new updated models the
totals have dropped back down to where I initially predicted. Also with the new winter storm warning, they have the expected totals down to 3-6 inches for the entire DC area with
the heaviest amounts still south and west of DC.
The temperatures when this storm first starts are going to
be above freezing, so if it does not change over to snow from rain right away
do not be surprised. 7pm temperatures are set to be around 35. Snow can still
accumulate at this temperature, just be mindful of this fact.
As the storm is arriving tonight, I will be give you a quick
storm synopsis for all the information you need to know about what will be
happening when.
Sunday Afternoon: Cool well below average temperatures,
staying mostly cloudy. High 41. Winds out of the NE at 10 mph
Sunday Evening: Snow developing after 7pm, will pick up
intensity around 9pm. Midnight Temperatures around 31.
Monday Morning: Snow will be heaviest during the early
morning hours from 2-5am, but will continue until 8am. Snow showers likely
during the mid-morning hours as the storm tapers. Temperature will fall to
around 28. Winds out of the NE at 10-15 mph.
Monday Afternoon: Snow showers will be a possibility until
around 1pm, after the storm will have moved out to sea. High 30. Winds will die
down significantly.
Monday Evening: Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy skies.
Low 26.
ACCUMULATION FORECAST: 4-8 inches of snow through Monday afternoon
Explanation: My initial assessment was the right one and I psyched myself out looking at other predictions that I deemed more official then mine. Look for this storm to be a strong snow producer, but not the way it was first said to be. I will keep it on the low end especially for our area which usually does not fair well with these sorts of storms (the totals are lower than expected).
Update (7:00pm James)
As the day progressed, this storm’s overall path and progression
has not changed much. It has shifted a little though. The one thing
that has changed is the precipitation forecast which has jumped and now favors the higher end predictions.
Predicted totals have jumped from 3-6 inches for the DC area, to 6-10
inches. I will do more analysis through the evening hours, but for now I will
revise my total forecast to 5-8 inches (updated below). This could very well change as new
information comes in on the storm’s track.The heaviest snow is looking to be south and west of DC rather than north and west with the new storm track.
This still has the makings of a bust storm, which
means we could very well get little accumulation or at least less than forecasted. Keep that in mind as
you hear reports and watch the news.
 |
| Snowfall forecast showing upwards of 8 inches for most of the DC area. |
Be patient and of course stay tuned. I will do a short video for those who are interested this evening.
A strong snow band that stretches from Kansas to DC produces
this conveyor belt effect. The snow protected by the cold air aloft will stay snow
for the area for almost the entire storm, though areas south of the area could
be experiencing sleet and ice. Also, there are strong winds out of the
Northeast meaning there is quite the bend in the jet stream near the middle of the country.
The low pressure system will form and move across the Southeast Sunday evening into Monday. The snow will truly begin in the DC area around 8-9pm with conditions worsening overnight. The heaviest snow will be in the 4-7am time block. So Monday's rush hour commute may be quite dicey. By Monday morning, most of the snow will have accumulated and snow showers will remain a constant well into the afternoon. Look for another inch or two on Monday, especially if temperatures remain below freezing.
What you need to know:
·
For those traveling back to GMU, make sure you head back early, especially if you're flying. Do not wait until the last minute and get stuck for a couple of days. This storm has the possibility of causing
delays and cancellations.
·
If you are driving, road conditions should be fine until Sunday evening around 7pm. After that, watch for slick
spots as the snow starts to pick up.
·
I would
be surprised if there were outages, but be prepared for one.
·
Be prepared for Monday and Tuesday classes. This
storm has the workings of being a potential DC bust.
·
Stay tuned to ForecastGMU and the National Weather Service for
updates on watches, warnings and totals.
·
Be wary of snow total forecasts.
Another update will come this afternoon with a better storm timeline and a video is a great possibility this evening. We will go live with more up to the minute coverage on Sunday. Enjoy the rest of your Spring Break!
-James
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