Monday, January 20, 2014

Winter Storm Janus

Alerts


*WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 11 PM TUESDAY *
 *WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM TUESDAY 6PM UNTIL WEDNESDAY 12PM*


mintemptuesnight
Low temperatures for Tuesday night (courtesy of NWS)

Tuesday: Snow starting to fall by 10 am. Should taper off by 7 pm. Temperatures dropping as low as 14 degrees. By 2 pm, winds should be steady at 15-20 mph with gusts reaching 30 mph. Snow total between 6-8 inches.


Tuesday Night: Snow will continue sporadically as night falls Winds sustained 15-20 mph from the NNW. Temperatures will drop down to 5 degrees with wind chills going as low as -12 degrees.


Wednesday Morning: Single digit temperatures and wind chills in the near negative 20 degrees. Advised to stay inside to avoid frostbite and hypothermia


Live Updates


As the storm arrives look for the storm to pick up throughout the day and the temperatures to fall. I know some of you woke up this morning and thought...Hey where's the snow! Well this storm as you can see has arrived. This "Clipper system" is a fast moving storm, but the intensity and low pressure of this storm is not as common. This storm will continue to move southward, but will eventually develop a strong surface low right off the Atlantic coast causing the entire eastern seaboard from DC to Cape Cod to receive significant snowfall amounts.

11:00AM (Jimmy Luehrs)-I apologize for not having another update sooner. Well as you can see the snow has arrived and it will be moderately snowing throughout the day. One might think, oh this storm isn’t that bad! Well that is because the low-pressure system bringing the cold air and more moderate to heavy bands of snow has not arrived. Those bands will arrive anywhere from 1-3pm and should continue through the evening rush hour. This means if you are going to drive, which I strongly suggest you do not, please do it before then. Why I tell you this, is not only is it going to start snowing heavier, but the winds will start picking up reducing visibility down to less than a mile. All classes and offices will be closed for today starting at 11:30am, and like always the university will wait all the way UNTIL 5am to make their decision on whether or not classes will go on for Wednesday. The forecast has changed a bit temperature wise and thus changed the amount of snow we will received. I tend to believe what is on the lower end of things, but look for anywhere from 6-8 inches of snow with near blizzard like conditions tonight into this evening. This will be our first good snowstorm in a couple of years in this area. Go have fun and stay safe Mason!

Also if you have good pictures from the storm please submit them to either Nick or me so we can post them up on the Twitter and Facebook page. Last time one of the pictures managed to be retweeted by the Weather Channel!

12:15 pm (Nick Stasiak) - Current temperature is 27.1 degrees. Wind driven snow is starting to accumulate on sidewalks and roads. Expecting another 4-5 inches in the coming hours. Heavier snow coming. Wind gusts reaching 30 mph by 3 pm. Temperatures dropping below 20 degrees by 2 pm.

2:45 pm (Nick Stasiak) - Current temperature is 23.4 degrees. Strongest wind gust sitting at 25 mph. Still expecting another 2 1/2 - 3 inches of snow. Will be going out soon to take photos. Like Jimmy said, if you have any photos, please send them to us.

Measurement taken at 4:45pm by Katie Thomas
Measurement taken at 4:45pm by Katie Thomas

5:25 pm (Katie Thomas) - As Winter Storm Janus plows through our region, we will continue to see blizzard conditions. As of 5:00pm, Mason has seen between 3-5 inches of snow. A measurement I took outside my dorm was a good 4 ½ inches deep. The snowfall will continue to vary into the evening; during rush hour the snow can become heavier at times and then giving way to tampering off  later into the evening.  This new snow accumulation is sought to be around an additional 1 ½-2 inches. You should expect snowfall to begin to stop around 10pm tonight, but don’t be surprised if we see some occasional flurries well into the night hours. As Janus makes her way up the East Coast, the temperatures are going to continue to drop well into tomorrow afternoon. Tonight expect the low to be around 7 degrees with a wind chill as low as -9 degrees. These low temperatures will freeze any precipitation on the ground; so don’t be surprised to see icy conditions in the morning. Tomorrow, we will see some sunshine, but the temperatures will remain in the single digits—high near 12 degrees. Winds will become steady around 13 to 17 mph, therefore we will see a wind chill as low as -12 degrees.

Mason has said they will make the decision regarding any closures due to inclement weather by 5am Wednesday morning. Stay safe during your commutes, enjoy the rest of your snow day and please continue to submit your photos! Stay with ForecastGMU for continuous live updates!

7:00 pm (Nick Stasiak) - Current temperature is 18.8 degrees. Final snow band is coming through now. Snowfall should taper down in the next hour. Icy conditions already on campus. Fairfax County Public Schools are CLOSED tomorrow.

Saturday, January 4, 2014

LIVE: Arctic Blast

WINCHESTER, VA ALERTS...

*WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY


Looking Ahead

Monday Night - Mainly clear with A LOW TEMPERATURE OF -2 DEGREES AND A WIND CHILL AS LOW AS -22 DEGREES. Winds still steady at 20-25 mph with gusts reaching 45 mph.
Tuesday - Mainly sunny with A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 10 DEGREES AND A WIND CHILL A LOW AS -10 DEGREES. Winds at 20 mph with gusts reaching 30 mph. Winds diminishing by 4 pm.
Tuesday Night - Clear with A LOW OF 5 DEGREES.

LIVE
9:00 pm - Temperature has dropped to 7 degrees. Wind chill is sitting at -7 degrees. Humidity is at 48%. Winds gusting to 20 mph. Pressure is steady at 29.92.
10:00 pm - Temperature has dropped to 5 degrees. Wind chill is down to -10 degrees. Winds still gusting to 20 mph at times. Humidity is at 45%. 




Thursday, January 2, 2014

That’s A Wrap 2013!

The year 2013 proved to be a very eventful, deadly, and costly year worldwide for extreme weather. The Arizona-Colorado area saw the worst wildfire outbreak in 60 years. We also witnessed extreme weather occurrences outside their regular seasons. And while 2013 US Atlantic Hurricane season was the quietest in decades, Mexico, the Caribbean and the Philippines took a beating, storm after storm after storm. As the torrential rainfall also never let up, floods submerged major cities worldwide. 2013 was marked with new breakthrough findings in climate change research. Let’s take a look back at the eventful year. Major media reported on numerous weather related events this year; here are the top 10 events:

10. Winter Storm Atlas

The month of October had a surprise beginning when Winter Storm Atlas came whirling through. Atlas was the first winter storm of the 2013-2014 season. It was an early fall snowstorm that delivered snow from the northern Rockies to Wyoming, South Dakota and Montana. Atlas marked the second heaviest snowstorm on record for Rapid City, South Dakota and was the city’s heaviest snowstorm for the month of October. This storm crippled the west with wind gusts up to 70 miles an hour. Atlas also had harmful impacts on the cattle industry. More than 7,500 cattle were reported dead after the snowstorm struck just days after reported highs of 70 to 80 degree temperatures in the area.

9. European and Alberta Floods

An aerial view of flood water in the city of Melk, Lower Austria, Austria, 03 June 2013. (Roland Schlager – EPA) washingtonpost.com
An aerial view of flood water in the city of Melk, Lower Austria, Austria, 03 June 2013. (Roland Schlager – EPA)
washingtonpost.com
The summer of 2013 put some major European cities and countries under water.  In June 2013 parts of Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic were the hardest hit. Several German villages were evacuated as the Elbe river basin flooded over its riverbanks. The river rose a whopping 22 feet over from its regular height. The Elbe River runs northwest through the Czech Republic and Germany, then flowing into the North Sea. Fatalities were reported as the following: 8 deaths in Germany, 6 deaths in Austria and 11 confirmed in Czech Republic.

The Alberta flood could be credited to an unusual upper atmosphere blocking pattern; feeding moisture from the Canadian Rockies. A total of 12 inches of rain was dumped over the period June 19-22nd. The overflow of the Elbow and Bow Rivers flooded downtown Calgary. The flooding resulted in 75,000 people being evacuated out of the city, $1 billion in damages and its estimated that it could take up to 10 years to rebuild. Four deaths were confirmed as a direct result of the flooding.

8. Spring Winter Storms

Winter Storm Yogi dumped heavy snow from the central Rockies to the adjacent Plains and Upper Midwest April 15-19, 2013. weather.com
Winter Storm Yogi dumped heavy snow from the central Rockies to the adjacent Plains and Upper Midwest April 15-19, 2013.
weather.com
Spring of 2013 was plagued with colder than average temperatures. An abnormal amount of late spring winter snowstorms made life in the west difficult well into the spring. Fourteen states had record low temperatures that put them into the top 10 coldest springs for period of March through May.  The steadily cold temperatures contributed to the late winter storm systems, Walda, Xerxes, Yogi, Zeus, and Achillies. Even the northeast and New England states found digging themselves out in late May with the Memorial Day weekend blizzard.

7. Colorado Floods

Flash Floods. They can develop within hours and with very little warning. During four days in early September parts of northern Colorado found itself engulfed in nine times their average September rainfall. On September 12th Boulder, Colorado collected 9.08 inches of rain. September 2013 became the single wettest month in Boulder. This tragic flood was not without its destruction: 8 deaths were confirmed and 1,500 homes were destroyed and another 17,500 homes were damaged. Also, nearby sewage treatment plants released an estimated 20 million gallons of raw sewage into the local environment.

6. Atlantic Hurricane Season

Satellite image of Ingrid on September 13, before the tropical storm strengthened into a hurricane. Photograph: Reuters/Nasa/GOES Project/Handout Photograph: NASA/Reuters theguardian.com
Satellite image of Ingrid on September 13, before the tropical storm strengthened into a hurricane. Photograph: Reuters/Nasa/GOES Project/Handout Photograph: NASA/Reuters
theguardian.com


The year 2013 was the first season with no major hurricanes (category 3 or higher) in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico since 1994. Although the 2013 season can be said to be the quietest in years, it did set some records. For the first time since 1968, there were no storms of a category 2 level or higher. Only two storms, Humberto and Ingrid reached hurricane intensity—the lowest number of hurricanes since 1982. In total, there were 13 named storms, many which were weak and short-lived. Tropical Storm Andrea was the only storm to make US landfall. If only the same could be said for Mexico. Mexico had nine tropical systems make landfall and saw another four brush by its coast, which caused some minor damage. Mexico even had two storms, Ingrid and Manuel, strike concurrently from opposite sides; Manuel struck the coastal cities on Mexico’s Pacific coastline and Ingrid targeted Mexico’s Atlantic coastline. This kind of event has not occurred since 1958. Between the two storms 192 lives were claimed mostly due to landslides, mudslides and flooding.

5. Fall Tornado Outbreak

Although fall is known as a second tornado season for the mid-west, we never seem ready for what Mother Nature throws our way. This year we saw much stronger tornadoes impact densely populated areas.  Between the months of October and November residents saw 116 tornadoes make touchdown and crippled the Midwest. The first major fall outbreak made an appearance on October 4 when 15 twisters ripped through Nebraska, Iowa and southeast South Dakota. On October 30th, another wave of violent storms tore through northern Texas, through the Mississippi River Valley, into the Ohio Valley and even up into the northeast. This extreme severe weather system unleashed 29 destructive storms. The largest outbreak this season occurred on November 17th when a supercell system released a total of 72 tornadoes over parts of Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Michigan, Ohio, Illinois and Indiana. The hardest hit areas; Washington and New Minden, Ill were both struck with EF4 tornadoes.

4. Climate Change Breakthroughs

Often making the 2013 news headlines was the always-debatable topic of climate change. The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released their fifth assessment report in September 2013. With the help of several hundred scientists from 195 countries, they published startling findings:
  • "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia."

  • "Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years."

  • "Human influence on the climate system is clear."

  • "Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions."

While people can argue the merit of climate change there is no doubt that the dense global population and increasingly growing output from automobiles and industry has an adverse impact on the environment.

3. Deadly Wildfires

Yarnell Wildfire www.freedomsphoenix.com
Yarnell Wildfire
www.freedomsphoenix.com
Unfortunately, the stars aligned for the deadly wildfires of 2013—and shifting environmental conditions acted as fuel for the fatal fires. The Black Forest fire burned through Colorado in mid June and claimed 500 buildings. The Black Forest fire goes into the books as the most destructive wildfire in Colorado state history. Take dry vegetation from the result of a summer drought and throw a lightening strike into the mix and you’ve got yourself a roaring uncontrollable wildfire.  This was the case of the deadly wildfire near Yarnell, Arizona that took the lives of the 19 elite members of the Granite Mountain Hotshots. The 2013 summer wildfires came to an end with the burning of The Rim Fire, which burnt 250,000 acres near National Yosemite Park, California. The Rim Fire is recorded as the third largest fire in state history. Even a casual observer can notice there are an increasing number of deadly wildfires each year. This can be attributed to continued urban expansion into these fragile and wildfire prone areas.

2. Oklahoma Tornadoes: Moore and El Reno

What do the cities of Greensburg, Kansas, Smithville, Mississippi, Joplin, Missouri and Moore, Oklahoma have in common? They’ve all been struck by EF5 tornadoes in the 2000’s. The EF5 tornado, the rarest and most violent ranked on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, possesses max sustainable winds of 200 mph or higher.  On May 20th a tornado with max wind speeds of 210 miles per hour plowed through the town of Moore, Oklahoma. In the wake of the tornado’s path, there was more than $1 billion worth of damages and 25 fatalities. The town of Moore, Oklahoma was leveled.

Just 11 days after the Moore twister, an EF3 tornado roared through the suburb of El Reno, Oklahoma. This wasn’t the first time El Reno had experienced such destruction—in 2011 an EF5 twister hit the El Reno-Piedmont area as well. Only this time, the slow moving tornado that struck El Reno was the largest recorded twister, with a diameter of 2.6 miles wide. Since the tornado was moving very slow, the destruction from the twister was greater because the powerful twister remained over the same area far longer than most tornadoes. Between the torrential rainfall and strong winds, 22 lives were claimed, including veteran storm chasers—Tim Samaras, Paul Samaras and Carl Young. R.I.P.

1. Super Typhoon Haiyan

NASA Astronaut Karen Nyberg, aboard the ISS, captured this image of Typhoon Haiyan. NASA ibtimes.com
NASA Astronaut Karen Nyberg, aboard the ISS, captured this image of Typhoon Haiyan. NASA
ibtimes.com
From what started out as a typical topical depression, this monster typhoon spiraled into one of the strongest and most destructive storms ever recorded in history. Within two days of the initial warning, the storm developed into Typhoon Haiyan and in the next two days this monster storm became a super typhoon consisting of max winds of 200 miles per hour. Haiyan made a historic landfall on the morning of November 8th in the Philippines, marking this storm the strongest tropical cyclonic system to ever impact landfall. After moving through the Philippines, Haiyan weakened over the South China Sea before it again made landfall in Vietnam. After the storm’s dissipation, the countries affected were left with billions of dollars in damages. Haiyan took the lives of 6,000 people and its estimated that 1,800 people are still uncounted for. Survivors were left with very little—losing everything in the storm. The remote impacted locations made it difficult for the rescuers and aid organizations to deliver the food, water, and medical support to survivors. Typhoon Haiyan is currently the strongest storm to ever make landfall.

Now that’s a wrap for 2013, lets see what Mother Nature has in store for us in 2014.

LIVE: Winter Storm Hercules

1) WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON FRIDAY
2) WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON FRIDAY

Synopsis - Low pressure system will continue to follow the jet stream off the coast, creating blizzard conditions in the Northeast. Temps dropping down to 16 degrees tonight, just reaching 20 degrees tomorrow. High pressure will move in, keeping the cold temperatures low.  Wind chill will drop to -1 tomorrow as well. As three different low pressure systems collide and gain strength, lines of equal pressure will get closer. Winds will be damaging tonight, reaching 50 mph. Snow total for Winchester VA will be between 2-3 inches. Anywhere from 12-18 inches of snow will fall in the extreme NE. This storm will 24-34 hours in the NE.


2:30 PM - Snow has started early here in Winchester. Current temperature is just below freezing at 31 degrees. Humidity at 83%. Pressure falling at 29.53 Hg. Main roads not fully covered yet, but as temps continue to fall, that will change. They are slick though. Go slow and be careful.







3:20 PM - We're officially at 29 degrees. Pressure has fallen to 29.50 Hg. Looking for anywhere from 2-3 inches through tonight.

3:35 PM - Snow is now sticking to main roads. Snowfall rate has also increased.






5:30 PM - Pressure has dropped to 29.44. Temperature is still at 29 degrees with the dew point at 26. Humidity sitting at 88%. Winds are quiet, but expecting that to change tonight.

5:40 PM - Accumulation of 2 inches in Winchester, VA.

7:00 PM - Accumulation of just over 2 inches closer to the Clearbrook area. Getting reports of 3 inches in the vicinity though. Depends on elevation. Temps have dropped to 28 degrees and humidity has bumped up to 90%. Pressure still sitting at 29.44. Reports are coming in about accidents and school buses still on roads. Try not to go out tonight. Roads will be especially slick with the frigid conditions tonight and tomorrow. Start thinking about charging all electronics before major winds move in.
 
8:00 PM - Clarke County and Frederick County Public Schools will be closed on Friday.

10:00 PM - This could be the end of the road for snow, but that doesn't mean conditions won't worsen. Winds will be picking up rapidly in the next hour. By 3 AM, winds will be steady at 25 mph with gusts over 35 mph. Winds will reach 30 mph with gusts over 50 mph at times. Temps will drop to 16 degrees for an overnight low. Currently, humidity is at 89%. The temperature is at 28 degrees and dropping. Pressure has dropped even more to 29.41.

10:10 PM - Winter Weather Advisory has been dropped.

10:50 PM - Pressure has bumped up to 29.44 which is the first sign that winds will be picking up soon. Humidity has dropped to 88%. Still at 28 degrees.

11:15 PM - Created this map to better understand the relationship between pressure difference and winds.