Blizzard Watch in effect from Friday January 22nd 12PM EST-Sunday January 24th 6AM EST
Update: 1/20/2016 10:00PM EST: This storm has certainly produced the hype. The daunting forecasts of the media makes it seem like the end of the world. Certainly this storm will have a major impact on the area as a whole, but there are really only 3 things to truly worry about for this storm.1. Power: Dominion is anticipating losses of power in the range of 100-200,000+ in the region. Knowing that you have flashlights, batteries, powered up that generator, plenty of firewood, sufficient amount of non-perishable food, and a safety supply of water is always important in these situation. If you lose power, do not panic. The threat of losing power is ever more possible considering that this storm is so heavy with wet snow which will weigh on trees, power lines etc. Combine this fact that anticipated wind gusts will rise upwards of 50mph by Saturday Night, and you have a recipe for large scale outages.
2. Roads: As we saw today Patriots, Fairfax and the rest of the DMV are TERRIBLE SNOW DRIVERS. So if you can, stay off the road. Especially adding to the fact that staying off them means that you will not be in the way of plows and emergency vehicles. This applies mostly from Friday 9pm-Sunday 7am. It does help that this storm falls on a weekend...If you do have to somehow drive, make sure you have a shovel, cat litter, extra food and water, and a fully charged phone in the car.
3. Make sure you check with elderly family members if they are in the path of this storm. Most deaths in these winter storms are from people over the age of 65. All it takes is a simple call to check in. If you have an elderly neighbor, offer to shovel their driveway. Also shovel your sidewalk in your neighborhood. It's the right thing to do and in some areas it's the law.
In general though, I love these storms. It is not often that we get walloped with snow such as this. Go sledding, take those skis out. Make a huge snowman or snow fort! (This snow is great for packing) Or just sit next to your window with a hot cup of tea and a good book. Or if you're me...continue look at weather boards, models, charts, and radar loops.
Timeline: This is the main part of the storm that has changed. The speed of the track was not quite as anticipated so the estimated arrival of the system looks to be Friday midday. This means that the snow will start just in the way that it started today. Though the significant accumulation will not grow until well after the sun goes down. Heavier bands of snow will arrive by around 8pm Friday night. Wind will also be on the rise and visibility will drop dramatically to less than a mile. Wind chills will drop to the single digits for much of the region. The worst of the storm looks to arrive early Saturday morning with 60-70% of the accumulation forecasted to fall between 4am-12pm. After this point, while the winds may still be a factor, the sure intensity of the storm starts to wind down a bit, this part of the storm is extremely hard to predict and could be the difference between 12 and 20+ inches of snow.
Friday 9am-1pm: Snow showers likely, temperatures steadily rising to near 30. Winds shifting to out of the ENE.
Friday 1pm-7pm: Snow starts falling, sticking and winds start to pick up. Temperature steadily drops as wind chills fall into the low to mid teens. 1-2 inches expected by this point
Friday 7pm-1am: Snow and winds intensify rapidly. Gusts of 20-30mph. Wind chills fall into the low teens and single digits in the north and western suburbs. Visibility drops considerably with blowing snow and higher precipitation rates. 4-6 inches expected by midnight
Saturday 1am-7am: Near whiteout conditions throughout the region, 40 to possibly 50mph winds. Blizzard conditions. Heavy snowfall of 1-2 inches an hour locally. 12-16 inches expected by 7am. Temperature remains in the low-mid 20's.
Saturday 7am-1pm: Storm maintains intensity into daytime hours. High winds and blizzard conditions remain a concern. Snowfall rates will drop by this point.
Saturday 1pm-7pm: Snow will finally start to slow, though will continue to fall throughout the region. 18-24 inches expected by this point.
Snow will finally before sunrise Sunday.
The models being in relative agreement even this close is still fairly unprecedented, and is something to note with this storm in particular. You want to be able to say with certainty that this event will in fact happen upwards of 96 hours out of the first flakes, but at the same time do not want to create a chaotic situation with the mass majority of individuals who only hear the deafening fear of mother nature's wrath. It's something from a weather communication standpoint is hard to tackle.
Possibilities: There's no question now that out of the possibilities I presented to you all, that option #3 was the winner. I still factor in the very realistic possibility that there is some bust potential with a storm of this magnitude. Keep that in the back of your minds as you prepare for Winter Storm Jonas.
Snow Maps: (Woo!!!) Without further ado though, I will present the overall snow prediction featuring the 18Z (most recent at this time) Euro and 18Z GFS snowfall maps
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| 18Z GFS Model estimates 24-26 inches for GMU by Sunday Morning |
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| 18Z Euro Model shows 28-30+ inches for GMU by Sunday morning |
Overall Forecast Summary: Snow expected Friday. Starting Friday Afternoon. Picking up Friday Night. Heaviest accumulations expected Saturday Morning Up to 2+’ per hour. 18-24 inches of snow.
I will keep you updated throughout the week as the forecast changes. Please follow us on Twitter and Instagram @ForecastGMU for more imminent information regarding short term forecasts, watches, warnings, and cancellations. We will be live by tomorrow evening!
Tweet us your snow pictures and tune in on Instagram for our official measurements!
-James
