Our Last Taste of Winter

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT IN OUR AREA FROM 6AM-3PM TUESDAY MARCH 25

Our Last Taste of Winter (James 6:00pm)

Yes, we are all tired of winter…even the snow lovers here at Forecast GMU realize that this winter has been as cold and as grueling as ever. Soon we will have a winter synopsis on why that is, which can be partially attributed to the warming Arctic region. For now, we are at the late stages of winter’s last grasp on the region before flowers start blooming and temperatures start becoming seasonable again. 

This storm is forming due to a strong area of low pressure off the Atlantic coast and will be going up the coast just like most Nor’easter storms. Though this one will have most of its energy out at sea and most of the significant snowfall will miss the region. That being said though, this area will still have some impact with the morning and possibly even the evening commute with moderate bands of snow possible through the hours of 8am-5pm.

 The total amount of snow will remain relatively on the low end with totals being near 1-2 inches and no real reason for concern about school closures. The heaviest of snowfall will be in the Northeast coast with very strong winds associated with this storm. The area of low pressure will be at its strongest late Tuesday into Wednesday with sea surface pressure near 950mb! (Hurricanes have pressures that low) That being said, we have little to worry about other than very windy conditions on Wednesday. Blizzard watches could be in effect for tonight for areas like Boston, Cape Cod and Nantucket with snow there expected from 6 inches to over a foot. 

Luckily this storm will be missing us this time.  

Here is the look at the weather conditions around noon tomorrow

The area of low pressure can be seen off the Georgia coast and most of the storm is far our to sea.

Monday Night: Temperatures falling through the night becoming mostly cloudy. Low 26. Winds out of the SE at 5-10mph

Tuesday Morning: Snow will begin around 5-6am and will have a more serious impact of sticking to roadways and sidewalks after 9am. Snow accumulations before noon around one inch

Tuesday Afternoon: Temperature rising above freezing, rain could mix in during mid to later afternoon hours before switching back to snow showers as the storm dissipates. High 36.

Tuesday Night: Windy, cold. Low 24. Wind chills near in the teens. Winds out of the NW at 20-25mph with gusts upwards of 35mph. Bundle up.

Do not worry though! Temperatures will be in the 60s and near 70 this weekend!!!

If you have any further questions or suggestions, feel free to comment, message me or post on the Twitter or Facebook page! 

-James

Holi Moli Forecast

Synopsis

Warm but windy is the forecast for Holi Moli. Temperatures will slowly be reaching the 67 degree mark. Be prepared for strong winds though. Winds will be steady at 10-15 mph with gusts reaching 25 mph at times. 

Hourly Forecast

12:00 pm - Partly Cloudy // 59 degrees // 13 mph gusting 25 mph

1:00 pm - Partly Cloudy // 61 degrees // 15 mph gusting 25 mph

2:00 pm - Partly Cloudy // 64 degrees // 15 mph gusting 25 mph

3:00 pm - Partly Cloudy // 65 degrees // 15 mph gusting 25 mph

4:00 pm - Partly Cloudy // 65 degrees // 15 mph gusting 25 mph

5:00 pm - Mostly Cloudy // 65 degrees // 12 mph gusting 25 mph

In case you're wondering...

1) Should I wear shorts? 

ANSWER: Yes, shorts will be fine. Keep in mind that winds will make the temperature feel lower than the high of 66. Also, at the start of the event, the temperature will be around 58 degrees. 

2) Jacket? 

ANSWER: If you can tolerate mid 50s and frequent wind gusts around noon, then no. 

3) Are sunglasses necessary?

ANSWER: You can wear them, but it won't be too bright. Skies will stay partly cloudy all day long. 

4) Should I be prepared for rain?

ANSWER: No rain in the forecast. 

5) Will it be muddy?

ANSWER: No mud on the turf field unless it tracks from shoes. 

-Stasiak

LIVE: St. Patrick's Day Storm

Update: (10:00am James)

As I expected, overnight with the new updated models the totals have dropped back down to where I initially predicted.  Also with the new winter storm warning, they have the expected totals down to 3-6 inches for the entire DC area with the heaviest amounts still south and west of DC.

Why is that? Read more

The temperatures when this storm first starts are going to be above freezing, so if it does not change over to snow from rain right away do not be surprised. 7pm temperatures are set to be around 35. Snow can still accumulate at this temperature, just be mindful of this fact.

As the storm is arriving tonight, I will be give you a quick storm synopsis for all the information you need to know about what will be happening when.

Sunday Afternoon: Cool well below average temperatures, staying mostly cloudy. High 41. Winds out of the NE at 10 mph

Sunday Evening: Snow developing after 7pm, will pick up intensity around 9pm. Midnight Temperatures around 31.

Monday Morning: Snow will be heaviest during the early morning hours from 2-5am, but will continue until 8am. Snow showers likely during the mid-morning hours as the storm tapers. Temperature will fall to around 28. Winds out of the NE at 10-15 mph.

Monday Afternoon: Snow showers will be a possibility until around 1pm, after the storm will have moved out to sea. High 30. Winds will die down significantly.

Monday Evening: Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy skies. Low 26.

ACCUMULATION FORECAST: 4-8 inches of snow through Monday afternoon

Explanation: My initial assessment was the right one and I psyched myself out looking at other predictions that I deemed more official then mine. Look for this storm to be a strong snow producer, but not the way it was first said to be. I will keep it on the low end especially for our area which usually does not fair well with these sorts of storms (the totals are lower than expected). 

Update (7:00pm James)

As the day progressed, this storm’s overall path and progression has not changed much. It has shifted a little though. The one thing that has changed is the precipitation forecast which has jumped and now favors the higher end predictions. 

Predicted totals have jumped from 3-6 inches for the DC area, to 6-10 inches. I will do more analysis through the evening hours, but for now I will revise my total forecast to 5-8 inches (updated below). This could very well change as new information comes in on the storm’s track.The heaviest snow is looking to be south and west of DC rather than north and west with the new storm track.

This still has the makings of a bust storm, which means we could very well get little accumulation or at least less than forecasted. Keep that in mind as you hear reports and watch the news.

Snowfall forecast showing upwards of 8 inches for most of the DC area. 

Be patient and of course stay tuned. I will do a short video for those who are interested this evening.

(11:00 AM James) Well…here we go again. Another winter storm, this time one supposed to take full effect on St. Patrick ’s Day (insert Luck of the Irish quote here). All jokes aside this storm has been a pain to forecast with model runs for the past few days putting this storm all over the place; from completely missing DC to having DC well under a foot of snow. I have been investigating the progression of this storm over the past 48 hours and it looks fairly similar to the last winter storm we saw in the DC area.

A strong snow band that stretches from Kansas to DC produces this conveyor belt effect. The snow protected by the cold air aloft will stay snow for the area for almost the entire storm, though areas south of the area could be experiencing sleet and ice. Also, there are strong winds out of the Northeast meaning there is quite the bend in the jet stream near the middle of the country. 

The low pressure system will form and move across the Southeast Sunday evening into Monday. The snow will truly begin in the DC area around 8-9pm with conditions worsening overnight. The heaviest snow will be in the 4-7am time block. So Monday's rush hour commute may be quite dicey. By Monday morning, most of the snow will have accumulated and snow showers will remain a constant well into the afternoon. Look for another inch or two on Monday, especially if temperatures remain below freezing. 

What you need to know:

·         For those traveling back to GMU, make sure you head back early, especially if you're flying. Do not wait until the last minute and get stuck for a couple of days. This storm has the possibility of causing delays and cancellations.

·         If you are driving, road conditions should be fine until Sunday evening around 7pm. After that, watch for slick spots as the snow starts to pick up.

·          I would be surprised if there were outages, but be prepared for one.

·         Be prepared for Monday and Tuesday classes. This storm has the workings of being a potential DC bust.

·         Stay tuned to ForecastGMU and the National Weather Service for updates on watches, warnings and totals.

·         Be wary of snow total forecasts. 

Another update will come this afternoon with a better storm timeline and a video is a great possibility this evening. We will go live with more up to the minute coverage on Sunday. Enjoy the rest of your Spring Break!

-James 

A Little More Than A Forecast: St. Patrick's Day Storm

Weather information today is a result of computer models run constantly by super-computers. These models try to give a three dimensional picture into how the dynamic atmosphere will act and respond to changes in conditions through time. 

There are several different model runs that meteorologists can use to help assemble a forecast. There's the Euro (ECMWF) model, the North American (NAM) model, the Global Forecasting System (GFS) model and even a Canadian (CMC) model to help give insight on what the future brings.

These models are mentioned from time to time on the Weather Channel and even on the occasional news blurb. The question is, what really goes on and why are forecasters so dependent on these super-computers?

Starting out is the basic math and physical science that goes into the atmosphere. There are certain sets of physical rules that apply to all facets of the atmosphere. These governing equations are the set of instruction codes that the computers have at their disposal for computation. All that needs to be plugged in though is the initial conditions.

These initial conditions are observed conditions from weather balloons shot up into the sky and surface conditions at the many weather stations all around the United States. They are confirmed though through the thermo-sensing technology of the several satellites circling the Earth. 

Once the initial conditions are set and a set grid parameter and accuracy is set. The model is run. The output given is to be extrapolated and studied and in no way do the computers just spit out a number that the scientists transfer to their findings.

With the European model and other operational weather forecasting models, this output will be run several times to show trends and give a clearer outlook at the forecast.  Since the atmosphere is a dynamic system, no model run is the exact replica of another. Thus the forecast is just a fair presumption based off of the output given and along with historical analysis and instinct.

In this storm, the initial conditions are also set on the positioning of key ingredients including upper level airflow, the surface low pressure, and the cold and warm fronts. All of these will have major impacts into how warm or cold the air is and is the air conducive into producing snow. 

All that being said, the conditions last night will much more favorable for heavier snowfall, but now with new information being entered in as the system progresses, there is new output. This output shows snow totals to be around 3-6 inches for the area.  Thus the National Weather Service in Silver Spring, Maryland distributed this information to all local news stations and weather outlets to communicate that information to you. 

Want to know more about the science of snow totals? Please message me and ask!

-James 

A Little More Than A Forecast (coming soon)

I have been asked by people to give some more in depth analysis on the incoming storm. This idea is what Forecast GMU is really all about: incorporating the basic public weather knowledge that can be easily understood and interpreted with the notion that we could always go deeper. My goal is to educate and to inspire the public to explore further truths. I feel that should be every scientists dream.

As an aspiring meteorologist, nothing pleases me more than when someone asks me about the weather. It shows that they show some sort of trust in the work that I do, and that I am one step above the average public member stating their opinion on how the atmosphere will function on a daily basis.

That being said, for further severe storms, I will be providing more detailed information for those that are interested in a separate article. The link for the connected article will be within the forecast near the bottom. Meteorology is a scientific venue that has seen a rise in attention in the last 20 years with the rise in concern of global climate change. Still though it lacks the true internal attention that I feel like it deserves.

This section will be a bit wordy so if you have any questions feel free to ask! I am always looking to answer questions. The goal is to educate and inform. You get kind of a backstage pass into how forecasting is done behind the scenes.

The first more in depth forecast will be with this incoming snowstorm and will be ready by tomorrow. Please keep in mind that I am still a student so my knowledge while substantial is still very limited as compared to seasoned meteorologists.

Hope you enjoy this new venture to our site.

Regards,

James

Spring Break Destination Forecasts

Spring Break 2014 is just a few days away! Going to a major spring break destination? Don't know whether to pack, jeans & rain boots or shorts & flip-flops? Check out these ten spring break travel destination forecasts, whether you are heading for the beach, the slopes, the city, leaving the country or staying at home, we have you covered!

New York City, NY

243 miles from Fairfax, VA

SUN MAR 9TH	MON MAR 10TH	TUES MAR 11TH	WED MAR 12TH	THURS MAR 13TH	FRI MAR 14TH	SAT MAR 15TH
40° 32° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 20%	48° 35° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 0%	50° 31° Overcast Chance of Rain: 20%	39° 29° Wintry Mix Chance of Rain: 40%	35° 25° Wintry Mix Chance of Rain: 70%	33°23° Overcast Chance of Rain: 10%	40° 26°  Mostly Cloudy  Chance of Rain: 0%

Fairfax, VA

0 miles from Fairfax, VA

SUN MAR 9TH	MON MAR 10TH	TUES MAR 11TH	WED MAR 12TH	THURS MAR 13TH	FRI MAR 14TH	SAT MAR 15TH
48° 30° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 20%	58° 35° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 0%	60° 34° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 20%	38° 29° Rain Showers Chance of Rain: 70%	41° 24° Wintry Mix Chance of Rain: 70%	39° 24° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 20%	47° 25° Partly Cloudy  Chance of Rain: 10%

Virginia Beach, VA

200 miles from Fairfax, VA
Water Temperature: 45°

SUN MAR 9TH	MON MAR 10TH	TUES MAR 11TH	WED MAR 12TH	THURS MAR 13TH	FRI MAR 14TH	SAT MAR 15TH
47° 38° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 20%	57° 43° Sunshine Chance of Rain: 0%	60° 43° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 10%	53° 41° Rain Showers Chance of Rain: 80%	48° 35° Rain Showers Chance of Rain: 70%	44° 35° Partly Sunny Chance of Rain: 10%	48° 38° Partly Cloudy  Chance of Rain: 10%

Outer Banks, NC

273 miles from Fairfax, VA
Water Temperature: 42°

Sun mar 9th	MON Mar 10th	TUES mar 11th	WED mar 12th	THURS mar 13th	FRI mar 14th	SAT Mar 15th
48° 42° Partly  Cloudy Chance of Rain: 20%	51° 47° Sunshine Chance of Rain: 0%	52° 49° Partly Cloudy  Chance of Rain: 10%	52° 49° Rain Showers Chance of Rain: 70%	58° 40° Rain Showers Chance of Rain: 70%	44° 39° Partly Cloudy  Chance of Rain: 10%	46° 43° Partly Cloudy  Chance of Rain: 10%

Daytona Beach, FL

796 miles from Fairfax, VA

Water Temperature: 77°

SUN MAR 9TH	MON MAR 10TH	TUES MAR 11TH	WED MAR 12TH	THURS MAR 13TH	FRI MAR 14TH	SAT MAR 15TH
73° 53° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 0%	75° 55° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 0%	74° 59° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 20%	76° 58° Scattered  T-Storms Chance of Rain: 40%	71° 46° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 20%	63°47°  Sunshine Chance of Rain: 0%	67° 51°  Sunshine  Chance of Rain: 0%

Panama City Beach, FL

930 miles from Fairfax, VA

Water Temperature: 65°

SUN MAR 9TH	MON MAR 10TH	TUES MAR 11TH	WED MAR 12TH	THURS MAR 13TH	FRI MAR 14TH	SAT MAR 15TH
70° 50° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 10%	69° 55° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 20%	70° 59° Light Showers Chance of Rain: 30%	72° 51° Rain Showers Chance of Rain: 40%	64° 42° Wintry Mix Chance of Rain: 0%	61°45°  Sunshine Chance of Rain: 0%	65° 50° Sunshine  Chance of Rain: 0%

South Padre Island, TX

1760 miles from Fairfax, VA

Water Temperature: 70°

SUN MAR 9TH	MON MAR 10TH	TUES MAR 11TH	WED MAR 12TH	THURS MAR 13TH	FRI MAR 14TH	SAT MAR 15TH
60° 55° Light Showers Chance of Rain: 40%	64° 59° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 20%	67° 61° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 10%	69° 57° Sunshine Chance of Rain: 0%	62° 56° Sunny Chance of Rain: 0%	63°59°  Mostly Sunny Chance of Rain: 0%	65° 61° Mostly Sunny  Chance of Rain: 10%

Vail, CO

1800 miles from Fairfax, VA

Ski Conditions: Powder/Packed Powder

SUN MAR 9TH	MON MAR 10TH	TUES MAR 11TH	WED MAR 12TH	THURS MAR 13TH	FRI MAR 14TH	SAT MAR 15TH
51° 25° Partly Sunny Chance of Rain: 0%	52° 29° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 10%	43° 24° Showers Chance of Rain: 40%	38° 15° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 20%	44° 21° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 0%	45°22°  Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 10%	47° 27°  Partly Cloudy  Chance of Rain: 10%

Venice Beach, CA

2700 miles from Fairfax, VA

Water Temperature: 60°

SUN MAR 9TH	MON MAR 10TH	TUES MAR 11TH	WED MAR 12TH	THURS MAR 13TH	FRI MAR 14TH	SAT MAR 15TH
75° 75° Partly Sunny Chance of Rain: 0%	70° 56° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 10%	70° 56° Sunny Chance of Rain: 10%	72° 57° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 0%	75° 57° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 0%	73°57° Partly Sunny Chance of Rain: 0%	73° 59° Sunny Chance of Rain: 0%

Cancun, Mexico

3200 miles from Fairfax, VA
Water Temperature: 60°

SUN MAR 9TH	MON MAR 10TH	TUES MAR 11TH	WED MAR 12TH	THURS MAR 13TH	FRI MAR 14TH	SAT MAR 15TH
83° 66° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 20%	83° 66° Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 10%	83° 71° Scattered  T-Storms Chance of Rain: 60%	83° 71° PM  T-Storms Chance of Rain: 60%	81° 69° Few Showers Chance of Rain: 40%	78°68°  Sunshine Chance of Rain: 0%	78°70°  Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain: 10%