Sunday, July 27, 2014

A Day at the Beach: Explained



Courtesy of Katie Thomas
During the summer everyone enjoys a day or a vacation at the beach, but do you really know about all the different weather and natural phenomena taking place in front of your sunglass covered eyes? Looking out at that large ocean in front of you while sitting on the beach, you may not realize all the wonders that are present where the ocean and shore meet. Phenomena like land and sea breezes, tides, wave activity and rip currents can produce a very interesting day at the beach.

Land and sea breezes are the patterns that describe wind movement between the sea and land. Wind breezes form because variances in temperatures cause a difference in barometric pressure, which leads to air/wind moving from a 
Source: NCSU
high-pressure area to a lower pressure area. This is the driving force behind land and sea breezes. During the summer months, there is a larger difference between the temperature of the land and the ocean because land absorbs heat from the sun quicker than water. During the day the land heats up, making the warmer air rise causing a low-pressure system to form at the surface. Meanwhile, over the cool ocean, high-pressure at the surface is formed due to cool air sinking. Then the air from the high-pressure (ocean) blows to the low-pressure (land) and you’ve got yourself a sea breeze. At night the roles are reversed as the land becomes cooler and the ocean remains warmer. Land and sea breezes are influential in daily beach weather. Fronts that are formed from sea breezes are known to trigger the occasional thunderstorm. This effect is regularly felt in the state of Florida because it is surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. So, one can state with a degree of confidence that we have active precipitation events at the waters edge due to the constant temperature change and mixing of high and low pressure systems; be it in a regional or localized setting. This is why one part of the coast can experience a strong rainstorm, but further up or down the same coast it is still calm.  Storms can roll in and out with great frequency along costal regions.


             Another driving force of dynamic weather at the beach is the ocean itself. The ocean is a large “sink” that absorbs a lot of the sun’s radiation from the earth’s atmosphere. Currents within the ocean help distribute warmer and colder water to respective areas. This helps regulate temperatures in different regions of the Earth. For example, the region around the equator absorbs more of the sun’s energy than it releases and the polar regions release more energy than they receive. To create a global energy balance, ocean currents regulate overall temperature and climates; this also makes the weather along the coast more dynamic than weather inland.  Without these ocean currents, regional temperatures would become too extreme and some areas would be uninhabitable.

Rising and ebbing tides and rip currents are another phenomenon found at the beach. As you may already know, there are high tides and low tides, which occur on a daily basis. Tides are so predicable that they are printed in newspapers and weather apps with a high degree of accuracy.  You may also know that the gravitational pull from the moon causes tides, but do you know how? The moon’s gravitational force creates “bulges” in the ocean on opposite sides of the planet.  These bulges are created by the moon’s gravitational force pulling water towards the moon and then away from it; these bulges subsequently cause high and low tides. When the moon is directly above you, you should be experiencing high tide. Then when the moon is directly overhead on the exact opposite side of Earth, you experience a low tide. Therefore, high and low tides are generally about 12 hours and 30 minutes apart. Another spectacle at the beach is rip currents. Most times rip currents can be more dangerous than anything else at the beach. Rip currents are created when waves travel to shallower water and some waves crash harder than others at points on the beach. This area becomes worn down as sand is pulled out to sea and begins to give way creating a break in the sand. This break allows for water to flow out to sea in a narrow channel at a much quicker pace than the surrounding water returning to the ocean. The concentrated stream of water has the power to possibly pull you out 200 yards or more. A sand bar, is a beach surface that is a few feet above the rest of the surf line, is what normally erodes and breaks and causes fast moving water to return to the ocean. So if you see a sand bar and rough surf, that could be where a rip current may occur.  Further, an active rip current will have a foamy and turbulent appearance as compared to the rest of the tidal activity around it.  If you find yourself caught in a rip current, don’t fight it; allow it to pull you all the way out and then swim parallel to the shore. Even the strongest swimmer can’t swim back to shore amid a rip current. Most importantly, don’t panic. Understanding the aspects of a rip current is the best way to avoid panic.

Courtesy of Katie Thomas
Speaking of crashing waves, have you ever wondered why waves break at certain points along the surf? The key to understanding why waves break is connected to the height of the wave, the depth of the water beneath it, the gradient or slope of the beach and the energy of the wave. A wave starts to crash when the ocean depth decreases to half of the wave’s wavelength. When this occurs the wave begins to touch the bottom of the ocean floor.  Water molecules begin to scape across the ocean floor, causing drag or friction and the wave’s energy begins to decrease, thus the wave grows upward increasing the wave height. As the wave continues to drag along the ocean floor, friction slows the bottom of the wave down as the top of the wave rushes ahead leaning forward until it tumbles over and crashes on shore. 

As you can now see there is so much more occurring at the beach than you may have first thought. Weather at the coast is very dynamic and often changing by the hour. One thing you can count on is when to expect high and low tides. Local surf shops and apps have tide tables for specific locations.  Be sure to check those out! Now that you know a little bit more about natural phenomenon along the coasts, enjoy your summer vacation at the beach and as you stand at the waters edge you will be much more aware of all the weather and ocean activity that is happening right in front of you!

-Katie

Saturday, July 26, 2014

Climate Change Weekly

ForecastGMU as a new segment being rolled out for the Fall 2014 Semester. Starting Monday August 4th, there will be a new topic discussed regarding climate change.

Climate change is such a fine-lined, touchy issue both within the scientific community and outside of it. The problem that I see with climate change is people being fed information that contains media and political bias on both sides of the argument. I’d rather have people be given true facts so they are informed enough to formulate their own opinion on climate change. Every week I will be submitting an article that has some connection to umbrella topic of global warming. They will not all be centered on scientific research and findings. They will range from political, agricultural, hydro-logical, medical, economic, social, cultural, and even diplomatic implications; all of which stemming from climate change. I will be taking suggestions though, as I would love your personal input on this new endeavor. Hopefully I will have enough articles to fill the entire semester’s worth.

The point of this segment is simply to inform the populous. I believe that every single person is inspired to learn about something they are curious about. The questions swirling in the college students mind make them seem anxious and bewildered about the world around them. That is certainly not the case; most are just inspired to learn outside the classroom.  Whether it be about the various changes in our atmosphere, or whatever interests you. I hope that students, or anyone else that is interested, become more informed about otherwise complex topics. This will mean future decisions will have a more active voice behind them and citizens are more engaged in thoughtful conversations.

Climate change as I see it will require not only the scientific community to be knowledgeable, but the common every day citizen. It will affect everyone, so being informed of its many facets is of utmost importance. Being active and helping the cause is also important for many people so I will try to include ways you can do so.


These articles will be fairly bare bones and just the basics of the chosen topics. It is meant merely as a starting to point to help hopefully inspire further investigation. I will include links in my articles for more information.

I will intentionally pick topics that are not well talked about within our mainstream/social media airwaves. They still have an immense impact on the world around us. I will also try to stay relatively neutral and stray from bias. This means I will attempt to be balanced in perspective, viewpoint and source.

Let me know what you think! I will even try to get guest writers/contributors to help with this section. 

-James 

Thursday, July 3, 2014

Fourth of July Forecast

4th of July Forecast for DC/Maryland/NorthernVirginia (DMV)

Courtesy of dc.about.com

All this talk about Hurricane Arthur has people wondering how will their Fourth of July plans be affected. Lucky for us in the DMV area, Arthur will have no influence over plans and we, at ForecastGMU, have your Fourth of July forecast!

For the DMV region, during the day we should expect warm temperatures in the 80's with breezy conditions. Throughout the holiday, we will have sunshine with no precipitation within the vicinity. Sunset is forecast to occur at 8:37 PM. As the sun sets, the winds will die down and the temperatures will cool into the lower 60's. Clear skies will provide a perfect backdrop for beautiful, colorful firework displays.








High Temperature: 83 degrees
Wind: NW 15-24 mph
Sky: Sunny
Precipitation: None







Low Temperature: 61 degrees
Wind: NW 8-13 mph
Sky: Clear 
Precipitation: None









We also have some of the most popular firework displays start times and locations:
The Washington D.C. National Mall: 9:15 PM
Reston's Lake Fairfax Park: 9:15 PM
Ida Lee Park, Leesburg, Va: 9:30 PM
College Park, Md: 9:00 PM in Lot 1
Takoma Park, Md: 9:30 PM
Fall Church, Va: 9:20 PM at George Mason High School
McLean, Va: 9:15 PM at Langley High School



-Katie

Wednesday, July 2, 2014

Hurricane Arthur: What you need to know

Our first hurricane of the season is upon us. Earlier this week, it initialized in the Caribbean near the Bahamas and now has strengthened off the eastern coast of Florida.  This storm intensified in the warm waters of the Atlantic and has started its trek up the Eastern Seaboard. Right now as we speak, Arthur is a tropical storm with a strong potential to reach the hurricane status by later tonight. That being said, the storm is quickly materializing with sustained winds at around 70mph. The pressure has dropped to 988mb. 

Satalitte image of Arthur

Here are the 5 things you need to know about this storm for tomorrow and Friday.

1.     Where will it impact? –The eye of the storm right now directly East of Jacksonville, Florida. It is moving due North at a slow speed of 8 mph. Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warnings have been for regions stretching from Myrtle Beach to the south all the way up to Virginia Beach. The main impact of the storm though is supposed to be around the region North and South of the Outer Banks/Cape Hatteras area. After the initial impact along these Southeastern beach regions, the storm will use the prevailing westerlies and move farther out to sea. Thus, it will miss affecting the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern regions. 

2.     What will be the main impact? As this storm is only going to be potentially a Category 1 storm. The impacts of winds are going to be relatively low. Also the storm will not be that close to the shoreline even at its peak impact, so only a mild to moderate rise in surf is to be expected. Strong heavy bands of rain is going to be the main factor that will be of concern especially on Thursday going into Friday. Rain from this storm will be felt towards the Northeast as well. There may be some coastal flooding involved with this storm. Also strong rip currents and rougher seas mean that an evacuation is in effect beginning at 5 am Thursday for the Cape Hatters region. 

Map of the probability of Tropical Storm force winds. The redder the color the more likely. (NOAA)
 
3.      Should I be worried about cancelling my 4th of July plans?-Not really, unless you live in the Virginia Beach/Chesapeake areas. If you do live in that region expect heavy rain, wind and stormy conditions in the early evening with clearing conditions later on at night. The storm is expected to be moving out to sea by the Fourth and not truly make full landfall luckily. This could change though so stay tuned, but most of the model runs have a northeasterly track of the storm on Friday.  The Boston Pops Fourth of July special has been moved to Thursday as they are preemptively playing it safe.  

Rainfall ranging from 1-6+ inches from this storm. Coastal Flooding very likely in areas. (AccuWeather)

4.     When will it be the worst? Katie has highlighted a detailed timeline for various locations in her article. 

5.     Is this a sign first hurricane of the season a sign of things to come? Hurricane season is just in its infancy and it is truly hard to tell what this coming season will bring. Surely it is a historically early start for named storms. Predictions have that this year will not be as active of a year for hurricanes in the Atlantic. It is hard to tell though so we will have to wait and see.


This is our first taste of the 2014 hurricane season.  Though the timing the thought of a hurricane seems daunting this storm should not pose too large of a threat for the coastal areas of the Southeast. 

There will be more information about incoming hurricanes and tropical storms this season in our Hurricane Update section of the blog. 

-James  

Timeline of Arthur

UPDATES as of 2 PM Friday are in RED.

Arthur Timeline: July 3rd-July4th
Currently:
Norfolk: Tropical Strom Warning
Virginia Beach: Tropical Storm Warning
Nantucket, Chatham, & Provincetown, Ma: Tropical Storm Warning
Courtesy of The Weather Channel
Hurricane Arthur is currently a Category 1 hurricane and is barreling up the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Thursday: Arthur will continue to strengthen while situated over the Gulf Stream; by late Thursday night we will see Arthur become a Category 2 hurricane.

Myrtle: Arthur will be closest to the South Carolina coast Thursday, but it’s predicted that the strongest winds will remain offshore. Though it’s possible that we could still see tropical storm force winds (39-73 mph). The major threat to the area is coastal flooding and strong rip currents.

Wilmington: By Thursday afternoon, large bands of rain from Arthur will come ashore. As the day continues the surf is going to become rough and we'll expect to see coastal flooding. By Thursday night, winds will increase to tropical storm force speed.

OBX: Should be noted: A mandatory evacuation has been issued for Hatteras Island. By 5:00am July 3rd no one will be allowed back onto the island. By late Thursday night, the Outer Banks will begin to see heavier rain bands move into the vicinity. The surf will become very rough with strong rip currents and the region will experience coastal flooding, approximately a 3-5 foot increase.


Friday: Arthur is a Category 2 hurricane.

Myrtle: Arthur will begin to move out of the area by early morning.

Wilmington: Heavy rain and tropical storm winds will continue throughout the day. By the evening Arthur’s track will move into the open Atlantic Ocean and out of the region.

OBX: Heavy rain will move into the area as Arthur makes its closest approach Friday morning. The Outer Banks should prepare to experience Category 2 hurricane strength winds (96-110 mph).  It's expected that the Outer Banks will see winds reach 100 mph. Along with these winds, prepare for increasing storm surge. By nightfall, Arthur will begin to exit the Outer Banks.

Cape Cod & Nantucket: Late Friday night Arthur will make it's closest approach to the Cape Cod region. Tropical storm winds are expected to arrive to the region late friday night. A cold front over the Northeast region, combined with Arthur will increase rainfall.

Saturday: Arthur is a Category 1 hurricane.

Cape Cod & Nantucket: Arthur will begin to pull away from the region. Arthur will move over Nova Scotia and New Brunswick before Arthur begins to dissipate. 

Courtesy of The Weather Channel

Arthur Facts (according to the 2PM ET Advisory):
Category 1 Hurricane
Max Sustained Winds: 90 mph
Pressure: 976 mb
Movement: NE 25 mph
Located: 255 miles SW of Chatham, Ma

Coastal flooding will be the worst during high tide. The following are the high tide times for select locations where costal flooding will be a major threat:
  • Myrtle Beach, SC: 2:03 p.m. Thursday; 1:58 a.m. Friday
  • Wrightsville Beach, NC: 12:25 a.m. Friday
  • Cape Hatteras, NC: 12:19 a.m. and 1:03 p.m. Friday
  • Norfolk, VA: 2:20 p.m. Thursday; 2:28 a.m. and 3:06 p.m. Friday

-Katie