Winter Storm Pandora

This Saturday we will, yet again, see another winter storm batter down on our region. Unlike Winter Storm Octavia, Winter Storm Pandora will be a messy wintry mix. Pandora will begin as snow before transitioning over to freezing rain and sleet. We will start to see the first snow bands arriving to our area around the noon hour. The record cold temperatures will have a large impact on snowfall accumulation totals. Since surface and road temperatures are and will remain below freezing, any precipitation that falls will freeze instantly on the ground. Once snow starts to accumulate, freezing rain and sleet can gradually accumulate on top of the snow resulting in slick and hazardous conditions.

Courtesy of the National Weather Service

Currently, the areas shaded in purple are under a Winter Weather Advisory and the counties shaded in pink are issued a Winter Storm Warning.

Although all falling precipitation won't be in the form of snow, Fairfax County could see between 3-6 inches of snow accumulate and another inch of frozen precipitation. As you move closer to Washington D.C snowfall totals decrease, while Loudoun County, to the west, could see 3-6 inches. Here is a timeline for the impact of Winter Storm Pandora for Fairfax County:

Saturday Morning: Scattered snow showers beginning after 8am. Temperatures near 18 degrees with wind chills sitting at 8 degrees. Winds from the south at 11-13 mph.

Saturday Noon: Around noon, snow bands will become heavier. Temperatures in the low 20's and a feel like factor of 9 degrees. Winds remain steady at 11-13 mph, but there will be occasional wind gusts up to 20 mph.

Saturday Late Evening: In the late afternoon to early evening snow will begin to make the transition to sleet and freezing rain. By 5pm, our region will start to see all freezing precipitation. Temperatures will be in the mid-20's with wind chills around 15 degrees. Winds will begin to decrease.

Saturday Night: Precipitation will begin to transition over to all rain between 10-11pm. Could possibly see a wintry mix continue into the early hours of Sunday. Temperatures are in the lower 30's, but it will feel like temperatures are in the lower 20's.

Stay with ForecastGMU for all your winter weather updates!

-Katie Thomas

Winter Storm Octavia: What's to Come?

For all of you snow lovers, what media and meteorologists are calling the largest snow storm so far this year is finally here! Snow is falling and will continue to descend into early Tuesday morning. We will be watching for significant snow accumulation around our area. Due to well below freezing temperatures, all falling precipitation will be in the form of snow. Currently, temperatures throughout the region are in the teens. This is the first major snow storm for the Washington D.C. region in 2015.

Courtesy of ABC7

If you take a look outside your window, you can see snow has already accumulated. With the combination of frigid temperatures and light, fluffy snowflakes, everything that falls will stick and accumulate. For the kids and avid snow lovers, this snow will not be good snowball snow. We expect our heaviest snow to appear between 10-11pm. By 6am Tuesday, we will see the system lift out of the region. Sunshine should return to by midday.

Courtesy of Weatherbell.com

An interesting aspect of the storm is that it is a southern snow storm. Most of our blizzards come up and move along the east coast, but this system originated out of the deep south. Thus, snowfall totals will decrease as you move north. Projected snow totals for Fairfax county and inside the Capital beltway are between 5-8 inches. To the south around Fredericksburg, totals are much higher--anywhere between 7-10 inches are expected. To the north near Winchester, snow fall totals are lower--only 3-5 inches. Overnight during the heaviest snowfall, winds will remain calm suggesting that power outrages will not be a problem. However, even with low wind speeds snow can blow around, especially on the roads, and can possibly impact visibility. Also, keep in mind the snow is fluffy, however after consistently driving over the snow it will begin to pack down and freeze making roadways slick.

Courtesy of ABC7

Like much of the state of Virginia, currently Fairfax County is under a Winter Storm Warning. The majority of Virginia and parts of southern Maryland, West Virginia, and Delaware are under a Winter Storm Warning. North of the Winter Storm Warnings, we can find regions under a Winter Weather Advisory. These warnings and advisories should be taken seriously. Winter Storm Octavia has already made big impacts throughout the Mid-Atlantic and the deep south.



Octavia's Big Impacts

Courtesy of the Weather Channel

This is the same storm that dropped large amounts (6-9inches) of snow over parts of Kentucky. Winter Storm Octavia was declared the most significant ice storm that Nashville has seen in the past 20 years. In North Carolina, cities including Charlotte and Raleigh are dealing with ice and sleet. Octavia has caused the states of Mississippi, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Virginia to declare a state of emergency.



With this much talk about significant snow fall totals, there is usually one question still on everyone's minds… Will I have school tomorrow? We'll give you updated information as we receive it!

Virginia
Alexandria City Schools: Closed Tuesday
Arlington Co: Closed Tuesday
Clarke Co: Closed Tuesday
Colonial Beach Public Schools: Closed Tuesday
Fairfax Co: Closed Tuesday
Falls Church City Schools: Closed Tuesday
Fauquier Co: Closed Tuesday
Frederick Co: Closed Tuesday
Fredericksburg City Schools: Closed Tuesday
King George Co: Closed Tuesday
Loudoun Co: Closed Tuesday
Madison Co: Closed Tuesday
Manassas City PC: Closed Tuesday
Manassas Park City Schools: Closed Tuesday
Orange Co: Closed Tuesday
Prince William Co: Closed Tuesday
Rappahannock Co: Closed Tuesday
Shenandoah Co: Closed Tuesday
Spotsylvania Co: Closed Tuesday
Spring "N" Dale Private School: Closed Tuesday
Stafford Co: Closed Tuesday
Warren Co: Closed Tuesday
Winchester Schools: Closed Tuesday

D.C
AppleTree Early Learning Public Charter School: Closed Tuesday
Basis DC PCS: Closed Tuesday
Cedar Tree Academy PCS: Closed Tuesday 
Centronia-DC Bilingual PCS: Closed Tuesday
Community Academy Public Charter Schools: Closed Tuesday
DC Public Schools: Closed Tuesday
DC Scholars Public Charter School: Closed Tuesday
Democracy Prep Congress Heights PCS: Closed Tuesday
Eagle Academy PCS: Closed Tuesday
Early Childhood Academy PCS:Closed Tuesday
Educare DC: Closed Tuesday
Excel Academy: Closed Tuesday
Friendship PCS: Closed Tuesday
Harmony DC Public Charter School: Closed Tuesday
Hospitality High School of Washington DC: Closed Tuesday
Ideal Academy PCS: Closed Tuesday
Imagine Hope PCS-Lamdon Campus: Closed Tuesday
Imagine Hope-Tolson Campus: Closed Tuesday
Inspired Teaching Demonstration PCS: Closed Tuesday
KIPP DC: Closed Tuesday
LAYC Youthbuild PCS: Closed Tuesday
Lee Montessori Public Charter School: Closed Tuesday
Levine School of Music: Closed Tuesday
Mary McLeod Bethune Day Academy PCS: Closed Tuesday
Meridian Public Charter School: Closed Tuesday
Mundo Verde Bilingual: Closed Tuesday
Options PCS: Closed Tuesday
Paul Charter School: Closed Tuesday
Somerset Prep Academy Charter: Closed Tuesday
Washington Math Science PCHS: Closed Tuesday

Maryland:
Allegany Co: Closed Tuesday
Anne Arundel Co: Closed Tuesday
Calvert Co: Closed Tuesday
Charles Co: Closed Tuesday
Frederick Co: Closed Tuesday
Howard Co: Closed Tuesday
Montgomery Co: Closed Tuesday
Prince George's Co: Closed Tuesday
St. Mary's Co: Closed Tuesday
Washington Co: Closed Tuesday

West Virginia 
Berkeley Co: Closed Tuesday
Hampshire Co: Closed Tuesday
Jefferson Co: Closed Today
Morgan Co: Closed Tuesday

Universities
American University: Closed Tuesday
Anne Arundel Community College: Closed Tuesday
Art Institute of Washington-Arlington: Closed Tuesday
Art Institute of Washington-Dulles: Closed Tuesday
Aviation Institute of Maintenance: Closed Tuesday
Bowie State University: Closed Tuesday
Capitol College: Closed Tuesday
Catholic University: Closed Tuesday
College of Southern Maryland: Closed Tuesday
Columbia College: Closed Tuesday
College of Southern Maryland: Closed Tuesday
DeVRY University: Closed Tuesday
Everest Institute (Silver Springs): Closed Tuesday
Everest College-Woodbridge: Closed Tuesday
Fredericksburg Bible Institue and Seminary: Closed Tuesday
Gallaudet University: Closed Tuesday
George Mason University: Closed Tuesday
George Washington University: Closed Tuesday
Germanna Comm College: Closed Tuesday
Graduate School-USDA: Closed Tuesday
Harmons Beauty School: Closed Tuesday
Hood College: Closed Tuesday
Howard Community College: Closed Tuesday
Howard University: Closed Tuesday
ITT Technical Institute-Springfield: Closed Tuesday
ITT Technical Institute-Chantily Campus: Closed Tuesday
John Hopkins U-DC Area: Closed Tuesday
LBC Seminary: Closed Tuesday
Marymount University: Closed Tuesday
Missouri State University: Closed Tuesday
Montgomery College: Closed Tuesday
Muhammad University of Islam: Closed Tuesday 
Medtech College-Maryland: Closed Tuesday
Medtech College-Virginia: Closed Tuesday
Medtech College-Washinton DC: Closed Tuesday
Northern Virginia Community College: Closed Tuesday
Prince George's Community College: Closed Tuesday
Salisbury University: Closed Tuesday
St. Mary's College: Closed Tuesday
The Universities at Shady Grove: Closed Tuesday
Trinity Washington University Closed Tuesday
U of MD-Baltimore Downtown: Closed Tuesday
University of Maryland-College Park: Closed Tuesday
University of Maryland-University College: Closed Tuesday
University of Virginia-Falls Church: Closed Tuesday
University of Mary Washington: Closed Tuesday
University of the District of Columbia: Closed Tuesday
University of the Potomac: Closed Tuesday
Virginia INTL University: Closed Tuesday
Virginia Commonwealth University: Closed Tuesday
Virginia Tech-No. Va Charter: Closed Tuesday
Washington College: Closed Tuesday
Wesley Theological Seminary: Closed Tuesday

Federal Government Offices are closed.


Stay with us here at ForecastGMU for updates on your winter weather!
-Katie

Winter Storm Octavia: LIVE

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR OUR AREA FROM MONDAY 4PM UNTIL TUESDAY 12PM EST

7:00pm update: About 1-2 inches of snow has fallen on the ground. The roads are snow filled but not as bad as I thought. As long as you take it easy they are still drivable. Snow will continue through the overnight hours and is set to pick up in about a couple of hours. The temperature is currently sitting at 13 degrees and dropping overnight.

No word on if Mason has classes for tomorrow. They will probably announce their decision a little after midnight if I had to guess.

Virginia getting the brunt of the storm. 7pm current radar (Intellicast)

2:30pm update: ALL MASON EVENING CLASSES AFTER 4:30PM ARE NOW CANCELLED AND OFFICES WILL CLOSE AT 5:00PM 

Current conditions at 2:30pm via Weather Underground

Snowflakes has begun falling in Fairfax!! This snow is very light and due to the very dry air, it will have trouble reaching the ground for some time. Currently the dew point is sitting at -8 degrees Fahrenheit which means that the air is not saturated. This will change later this afternoon as the system really moves into our region.  Watch for possible light accumulation to begin within the next couple of hours. Though this is not guaranteed. 

This is a good time to remind everyone to send your snow pictures in so we can feature them on our site! 

12pm update: Currently the temperature is 14 degrees F. Clouds have moved into the region.  Currently the system is producing light to moderate snow in areas South and West of the area. Areas such as Harrisonburg, Blacksburg and Roanoke are reporting light snow. Minimal accumulation though in these areas. This will change in the coming hours. Currently, the heaviest of precipitation is falling in Kentucky and Tennessee in the form of mixed precipitation and snow. The low currently sits in the Gulf Coast and is slowly strengthening. Though snow flurries may start this afternoon, do not expect accumulation to pick up until much later this evening.

Current Conditions (via Intellicast)

Not much has changed in terms of the forecast. I'm sticking with my initial prediction with snowfall totals of 5-8 inches. Expect the heaviest of precipitation from 11pm-4am. 

It is very possible that evening classes/activities could be cancelled. Stay tuned to our Twitter as we will be relaying information regarding cancellations or delays as soon as it is public. If classes are not cancelled be careful driving out of campus as even if roads look okay and treated they may become slick. 

Remember again to move your car out of the main parking lots to Rappahannock Parking Deck starting at 3pm so that the parking lots can be properly treated before the storm begins. 

10pm Sunday: A dramatic northerly shift has revamped the possibility that the DC area will receive a real legitimate snowstorm this season. Following the release of the 12Z model runs, a new scenario for storm development is allowing higher snowfall totals to lie within the realm of possibility. Without going to in depth about the model comparisons; needless to say the models are in relative agreement about the development and snowfall predictions of this system. 

Tonight the record lows and high wind chills will continue the currently trending pattern of a massive trough that has filtered Arctic air directly into the region. This ingredient of the cold air mass will play a key role on the impact of the storm as a whole.  

Currently the storm is forming within the South Central part of the country, burdening millions with the threat of snow, sleet and freezing rain. This is a very classic scenario for a heavy hitting winter storm for us. The storm will then move along the Southern US moving eastward towards the Gulf Coast where it will gain moisture and begin to move up the coastline. A ridge of warm moist air will be prominent around a newly forming low pressure and will produce rain and strong storms for states such as Mississippi and Alabama. Eventually tomorrow the low will situate itself off the Atlantic Coast and begin to strengthen. By the time this happens the system moves in from the South and West affecting areas such as Richmond and Charlottesville before reaching the DC Metro area by the afternoon.

Timing of this storm is not exactly ideal. The main onset of the storm is early afternoon. Though major snowfall is set to start around the end of rush hour or 6-7pm. By this time the low will have strengthened and heavier snowfalls will occur after and through the night. The majority of the snowfall totals will most likely be within the times of 8pm-6am Tuesday with a chance of snow showers lingering afterwards until midday Tuesday when the clouds start to clear.

So what we are looking at is a storm with the potential to bring significant snowfall totals. There is a very evident uncertainty with predicting winter storms such as this as snowfall totals take into account predicted moisture in the air and storm track in order to simulate a scenario moving forward with time. That being said, the scenario that I just mentioned is one that is extremely likely of occurring.

Here is a look at the likelihood of snowfall total outcomes (via WPC by 7am Tuesday)

The probability of snowfall totals higher than 2 inches

Probability of 4 inches+

Probability of 6+ inches

Probability fo 8+ inches

Probability of 12+ inches

So as you can see from the maps it is looking more and more probable that snowfalls will be high. 

School/Classes: I will put the likelihood of classes being completely cancelled on Tuesday at 70 percent with the likelihood of at least a delay at 90 percent. Unless the storm is a complete bust expect there be to be some action by the school.

Impact: Medium-High-luckily this storm will be all snow and due to the cold temperatures it will be the more powdery variety of snow. This does not mean that driving will be any easier or safer. Please use all precautions necessary and do your best to stay off the roads unless they are plowed or it is some kind of emergency. The temperatures being below 20 degrees during the night will mean that even if the roads are treated, snow will still be able to stick with relative ease and will require plowing. There is a small chance of people losing power only if tree branches have been weakened due to the constant amount of high wind and are near power lines.

Timeline:

Sunday Night: Winds will die down significantly after midnight, though temperatures will remain in the single digits and wind chills will remain well below zero. Clouds will begin to come in in the very early hours Monday morning.

Monday Morning: Partly Cloudy skies will become Mostly Cloudy by mid morning with temperatures not making it past 20 until the afternoon.

Monday Afternoon: Snow flurries may begin earlier with the system moving in, but snowfall will truly begin by 3-4pm. Not much will be sticking at first.

Monday Evening: Snow will start to pick up around 7pm with winds coming out of the South pulling moisture in. Expect a solid layer of powder on the ground by nightfall. Temperatures will remain stable around 20 degrees.

Monday Night: The temperature will remain stable as snow will really start to ramp up after midnight into early Tuesday. Snow totals by sunrise Tuesday will be around 6 inches throughout the metro area.

Tuesday Morning: Snow showers will remain throughout the morning but the possibility of more significant accumulation decreases tremendously after 7am.  By mid morning the storm has all but moved out of the region. Temperatures will begin to rise as the clouds will start to clear.

Tuesday Midday: Partly cloudy skies with a High near 30 with winds out of the North at 5-10mph.

Total snowfall accumulation: 5-8 inches. Anything less than 5 I am considering a bust in this scenario. Do not be surprised if more than 8 inches is on the ground Tuesday morning either. I am still being a bit of skeptic when it comes to higher totals as this area is very prone for bust scenarios. So in this case I will settle with a more conservative approach. 

We will be going LIVE tomorrow at 12pm with updates throughout the day. Stay tuned. For more updates check our Twitter and Facebook. Thank you!!