Thursday, February 20, 2014

Slight chance of severe weather Friday morning

FRIDAY FORECAST
Morning: Cloudy. Mild with temps reaching 57 degrees. Cold front will move in around 10 a.m. and head out just after lunch. Expect a quick squall line to move in bringing the strongest wind gusts (40 mph). Just after the squall line, expect heavy rain and wind gusts reaching 30 mph. Don't be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder. 

Afternoon: Cold front leaves around 1 pm with high pressure building after. Expect clearing skies and temperatures dropping to the upper 40s. Winds will drop down to about 7 mph for the rest of the day. 


EARLIER BLOG POST
A strong cold front will be invading the DC metro area on Friday morning. Moving quickly, the front will bring heavy rains and gusty winds. The cold front will wedge the warm air up and bring back some cooler temperatures. Before the system moves in, temperatures could reach 57 degrees. After the cold front, high pressure will move in bringing clear skies and temps down to the upper 40s. 
Front moving out of the region. (Courtesy UCAR)
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has placed our area under a slight risk of severe weather for tomorrow. Expect between a quarter of an inch to half an inch of heavy rain by noon. Winds could reach 30 mph as the cold front passes.



Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Weather Channel Fallout!

 VS.  

The topic at hand is a simple one and one that has received lots of media attention. After major contracts disagreements, DirecTV decided it was best for them to part ways with The Weather Channel.  With the cut of the Weather Channel from Direct TV, it opens the door up for other private companies to compete for the prime position as chief weather distributor. Currently WeatherNation has taken over the reins of chief weather provider within the cable network. AccuWeather though has made a strong case that they will take over in the absence of the Weather Channel with their own network. This is the same Weather Channel that has helped revolutionize weather in popular media and helped bring the ideas of up to the minute updates and accurate 5-day regional forecasts into the light.

This is the same Weather Channel that defined my childhood as an aspiring meteorologist. I remember  as young as the age of 7 or 8, getting up and sneaking downstairs to turn on the Weather Channel hours before the rest of my family would wake up.

Though over the years of gaining popularity, the Weather Channel has shown signs of committing themselves too much to the people’s support with new shows that border on the side of entertainment rather than science.

This probably was not the reason that Direct TV, a high-ranking cable provider and the main provider for George Mason University dropped them. Yet it brings up the point of the article. Weather media is rapidly changing. Even as I write this article, thousands of students at GMU do not tune into the Weather Channel, rather they just scan their smart phones or laptops for updates on the coming weather for the week.[i] There are ways to share informative and visual updates on road conditions and travel delays via Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. It brings up the obvious point…why do we need the Weather Channel?

So for the survey, I picked a random selection of students who are either friends of mine, or my older sister Rachel, who is an Arlington County teacher.
So with that in mind I started asking questions to these students:

Question 1: How often do you watch the Weather Channel?
              A. Once or more a day
              B.     A couple of times a week
              C.     Every other week
              D.    Whenever there is a hurricane/severe storm incoming
              E.     Never watched it

Everyone I asked put D. Maybe it was a bias question, but I wanted to gauge the audience’s viewership of the station. It presents the purpose of why people feel the need for weather information to be on public media: Safety.  We trust these men and women with our lives as they read watches, warnings and storm tracks. Their intent is to keep everyone safe and out of harm’s way by relaying specific and comprehendible information.

Question 2: What do you think of the Direct TV news? Are you a fan? Not a fan? Indifferent?

Here is where I started to get some differences with my responses. While the majority of responders stated that they were indifferent and that “business is business,” some were not pleased with the news. They pleaded, “Direct TV doesn't care about their customers because the weather channel is a trusted cooperation and they give accurate information.” Others were not familiar enough with the story to even answer.

Question 3: Have you heard of AccuWeather?

Most respondents had not heard of the Penn State-based Company other than in passing, though one respondent “trusts the widget as it is more accurate than the Weather Channel’s app”.

Question 4: Is it important to have live up to the minute coverage of severe storms on our television? If yes, why so? Can people just check their smart-phones for the same information?

This is the question I deemed as the most important of the interview. The two -part question made it tough for many of the interviewers to find the answer right away. It is true that we have become so entranced and impatient for direct and accurate data that the idea of up-to-the-minute coverage is something that we just expect rather than appreciate. Imagine if this was not the case, and the dangers that might loom because of it.

The answers I received also reaffirmed the generation gap in how we get information. The older generation still turns to the television as their sense of comfort when accurate information is needed. The younger generation has found little use for this source of media, so it will not truly be missed

Question 5: Do you see the trend of weather media shifting in the future? And do you see this as the catalyst of the said trend?

Many respondents immediately noted the sensationalism that weather media and media in general have succumbed to. It is all about instilling fear into the people to keep them begging for more. The 24/7 news outlets are constantly streaming the same story, with each and every detail blown up to dramatic proportions.
The world is becoming faster paced and people do not have time to merely sit down and watch the Weather Channel like I did is a child. They just want to know when, how much, and how they will be affected in 20 seconds or less.

The difference between television, radio and smart-phones as weather media outlets is that there is a dramatic loss of the human aspect of weather information. It limits the reader to just a screen of graphs and numbers that has been extrapolated and manipulated from hundreds of ensemble model runs done.  All they see is “High 55 Low 38, partly cloudy and a 60 percent chance of rain”.

Question 6: How do you think weather coverage can be improved for future generations?

Again this is more of an open-ended question, as I wanted to see the respondents’ unbiased viewpoints.

The overall consensus is better emergency alert systems, farther out improve the overall accuracy of the information given in an updated fashion.

One respondent answered that weather coverage should also be “breaking down why things are happening and describe anything we can do to help mediate the problem.

Though I agree with the overall consensus, the last response made me realize what Forecast GMU is really about. It is about not only the reporting of events and education for the public domain, but also to begin to empower the common student with knowledge on how he or she can be an advocate for a safer future in weather as climate change looms.



[i] GMU is still showing weather on Channel 28. It is now WeatherNation until the dispute is resolved.

A special thanks to Maria, Meagan, Aaron, Jacob, and Rachel for their thoughtful contributions and helping me write this article.

What do you think of this ongoing contract dispute? Leave your comments below, or message Nick, Katie or myself your thoughts on this ongoing dispute.  

To see Direct TV's CEO's response: Click the link 
To see the Weather Channel's response: Click the link 


--James

Monday, February 10, 2014

LIVE: WINTER STORM PAX

ALERTS
**WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY**
*THURSDAY CLASSES CANCELLED*

Storm Synopsis
Low pressure will continue to intensify as the day goes on. Winds will pick up and another round of snow will fall around 3 pm. Winds will shift around midnight as high pressure stays for the day, Friday, just before a cold front moves through. This could bring another 1-2 inches of snow on Saturday.


Thursday Afternoon: Snow and sleet dissipating. May mix with rain. High of 34 degrees. 

Thursday Night: Precipitation ending late. Winds shifting out of the NW. Low of 26 degrees.

Friday: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Winds out of SW. High of 40 degrees.



Obvious low pressure system over the coast of Virginia. Major snow just after 32 degree line. (Courtesy National Weather Service)
10:30 pm 
Predicted snow totals released by the National Weather Service around 7 pm Tuesday.


11:30 pm - Low doesn't even form until tomorrow at 12 pm. Storm won't hit until around 7 pm tomorrow. Forecasting is pretty tricking right now. Something to keep in mind... 
(Courtesy UCAR)
12:00 am - Final post of the night. We'll have a video posted tomorrow. It should help to explain what's going on. For now, just know that we will be under a Winter Storm Warning at 8 pm Wednesday. Also know that VA is under a State of Emergency. As for snow totals, I'm sticking with 5-8 inches. -Nick

1:00 pm - New forecast video is up. Will probably have another video later on. Keep checking in for updates. I'll be in class from 5:45-8:45 pm tonight, so James and Katie will have you covered during those hours. Be safe!


4:25 pm - A couple of changes being made to the forecast. I've raised accumulation up to 5-10 inches. Heavy snowfall starting around midnight looks promising for some quick accumulation. With warm, wet air above, these snowflakes are going to be pretty big. I've also added sleet into the forecast. Sleet won't start until late tomorrow morning though. Jimmy will have an update around 6 pm tonight. I'll be gone until 8:45 pm. -Nick Stasiak 


2:00 am - Almost 4 inches of snow has fallen already. We're hitting that stretch of heavy snow right now. I'm expecting several more inches. Crews are out doing all that they can to make the campus safe. 
Crews battling the heavy snow. (Courtesy Nick Stasiak)


3:00 am - Video report from a little less than an hour ago. Replace my "3-3 1/2 inches" with 5 inches. 

12:30 pm (Thursday) - We're looking at well above 10 inches on the Fairfax campus. Freezing rain is falling now, but look for a dry spot coming. Should be another round of snow and sleet from the south. 
(Courtesy Nick Stasiak)


Winter Storm Pax

Update: 5:30pm

Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Fairfax from 7pm EST Wednesday until 10pm EST Thursday

Within the last couple hours this storm has gone from possible system to definitive Winter Storm. The winter weather watch calls for much more intense conditions than I originally forecasted. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph and wind gusts upwards of 40 mph are very likely which means near white-out conditions. The timing to the storm stays relatively the same with the bulk of the storm passing late Wednesday night well into the day Thursday. What needs to be watched though is the exact track of the low pressure as it moves up the coast. This track could have tremendous impacts on how the snow total amounts throughout the region. The variance of these tracks is still too high to have definitive totals. It is certain though that there will be snow within the time period stated above. The main travel impacts will be on Thursday morning during rush hour.

f78

Here is my rough forecast for the storm; we will have way more advanced analysis by this evening

Tuesday Night: Clear skies, very cold temperatures. Low near 10 degrees. Winds out of the North

Wednesday Morning: Mostly sunny turning cloudy through the day. Temperature climbing to near 30. Winds shifting to out of the NE

Wednesday Afternoon: Snow will begin light and even flurry all afternoon. Accumulations less than 1 inch

Wednesday Night: Snow will pick up significantly especially after midnight.  Accumulation at this time 2-4 inches. Temperature stabilizing near 27

Thursday Morning: Snow will continue through the morning hours, could shift to rain/snow mix towards midday. Temperatures below freezing through the morning hours Total snow accumulation 4-8 inches

Thursday Afternoon: Snow/ Rain showers through the afternoon, diminishing by early evening. High near 35

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy skies clearing late, Winds out of the NW near 10-20 mph.  Temperatures near 25

Again this system has not even truly developed yet so making predictions is just going to be based off of the several model runs that are being done through the National Weather Service. We will do our very best to keep you updated with a more detailed report of this storm this evening.

-James