GIS Day - George Mason University

GIS DAY is WEDNESDAY NOV. 18th !

GIS Day is apart of Geography Awareness week presented by George Mason University's Geography and Geoinformation Science Department. Sounds interesting, but you don't quite know what GIS is? Well to start, GIS stands for Geographic Information Systems. Geographic Information Systems is a largely growing field. GIS is a computer-based system used for capturing, storing, and displaying data on the Earth's surface. People use it to better analyze and visualize spatial patterns and relationships. You may not even realize that you use GIS in your everyday life. Not only does GIS have applications used for geography, but many other fields count on GIS solutions to solve everyday problems. GIS Day attracts students from all different areas of study. 

GIS Day allows students to converse with leading GIS-based companies, organizations, and agencies, in which students can gain essential information from professionals in their field of study. Students are also presented with opportunities to show-off individual and group research posters, their mapping techniques, and to be a member in a school-wide humanitarian geodatabase contribution. The week consists of a career and internship fair, guest speakers, presentations and demonstrations, student research poster competitions, a student map competition, and a Map-Off! In the Map-Off, George Mason will be completing against George Washington University to see which school can digitize/map the most areas. This geodatabase contribution will hopefully help in closing data gaps throughout the world.

Come on out! 

-Katie

UPDATE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN

HURRICANE UPDATE: 

Hurricane Joaquin

Category 4 

Max Sustained Winds: 130mph 

Pressure 936mb

I was very reluctant to do a post so far out of a storm. Too many times in the past I have been more upfront about posting about a storm and it being a non-factor. As the storm enters the 3-4 day forecast window. It becomes more and more evident that this storm in some respects is going to have a major impact in some way or another on millions of Americans. Here are the 5 things that YOU need to know moving forward about this storm and the way that hurricane forecast's are produced.

1. Do not trust one model as law. They are just a mathematical estimate of physical properties in the atmosphere at its current state. The atmosphere is a dynamic state and thus changes constantly. Therefore the forecast will change constantly accordingly. Models can be used as guidance to help determine trends within a system. In this case for this storm in particular there are two different factors that will determine whether this storm will be catastrophic for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States, or be an afterthought with lingering showers and breeziness and high surf for coastal regions.

GFS model outlook as of 7am this morning

2. Factor #1: Steering mechanisms. Storms have to follow a wind pattern. In the cases of most intercontinental storm or frontal systems. These will follow upper level wind patterns which can be caused by a number of factors. For the tropics, both land based and ocean based steering mechanisms are a factor making path predictions extremely complex. In this particular situation a high pressure system in the Atlantic was originally supposed to lock the storm into its route up the East Coast, even having it move back inland as seen in a situation such as Sandy. In the updated models, this high pressure is not well developed and thus the GFS and Euro models have the system going well out to sea. This high pressure would be shifting eastward from Canada to move over the Atlantic. In the Canadian model, this high pressure is so well developed that landfall looks to be more direct.

850 vorticity map via NWS/NCEP

3. Factor #2- Strength of the storm due to shear (or lack there of). Shear or vertical shear is the differing wind patterns with increasing height. The more shear there is, the less powerful a hurricane can become as the shear breaks down the storm, especially in the eye. If the eye is more well developed. Then the storm can continue to intensify over warm waters with high winds, lower pressure, more moisture. It is basically a positive feedback. The opposite is of course true if shear is introduced to the storm. Which may happen as the storm approaches where it was scheduled to make landfall.

4. Even if it is out at sea, there will still be impacts for our region most likely. By this weekend, we will most likely have received 4-10 inches of rain this past week. Flash flooding is definitely not out of the question, especially for regions close to streams and rivers. Remembering to avoid backroads that have a tendency to overflow with rain water and to not pass through areas where you cannot see the road can help alleviate any concerns about the floods themselves. Right now though, the Bahamas are completely a mess and may require extensive efforts for recovery from this storm.

Rainfall forecast estimation via NCEP (via CWG)

5. This storm serves as a reminder that hurricanes that impact the East Coast remain a concern. They may not be an every year occurrence, but with ocean waters continuing to rise and climatologally norms becoming a mystery, it is hard to tell whether these hurricanes will be an anomaly or not. Doing our best to have the tools necessary to prepare for a hurricane, especially in areas like Lower Manhattan which proved exposed to the elements 3 years ago, can be very beneficial moving forward. It also proves the power of social media can bring immediacy in terms of informational flow and updates. Keep the sources reliable though. I tend to only trust NHC (National Hurricane Center), WeatherBell for model information, and locally the CWG (Capital Weather Gang) along with TerpWeather give very accurate and objective information about storms.

That is all for now.

For now, stay tuned. This storm is far from over.

-Jimmy

P.S I was using this site to see historically how often we see tracks such as the one we are seeing with this storm. Very cool site. Would suggest for climate nerds like myself.

Link: http://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

Tropical Weather Advisory: Hurricane Joaquin

Hurricane Joaquin

**Updates in Red**

Courtesy of NASA

Quick Facts

Location: 10 miles N of Rum Cay Bahamas

Winds: 130 mph

Moving: N at 5 mph

Pressure: 942 mb

Tropical Storm Joaquin underwent a strong period of intensification Tuesday afternoon. Joaquin's surroundings were relieved of high wind shear, allowing for stronger thunderstorms (convection) to form towards the center of the storm. Wednesday morning, Joaquin became the third 2015 Atlantic hurricane and is now a CATEGORY 4 hurricane. As of Friday morning, NASA has detected that Joaquin is going through an eye wall replacement cycle. This is very common in strong, powerful hurricanes. Although it can weaken the intensity of the hurricane, it can also spread hurricane force winds over a larger area. 

It is often difficult to predict Atlantic hurricanes landfalls. In the graphic below the colorful lines represent different models' forecasted tracks for Tropical Storm Joaquin. These disagreements in the projected path lead to a large cone of uncertainty (second graphic). Some models keep Joaquin further east, while others have it making impacts anywhere between Cape Hatteras, NC to Long Island, NY. By Wednesday morning, models started to narrow in on an area of impact. However, as of Thursday afternoon models are taking Joaquin's path further out east. Currently, the GFS model is taking the category 4 hurricane up the coast without a east coast landfall. While the NAM is still forecasting for a landfall between the North Carolina and Virginia coast. Current as of Friday afternoon, Joaquin's track has shifted more eastward over the Atlantic Ocean. A United States landfall seems unlikely. Landfall or no landfall, the east coast will feel a variety of impacts. These impacts could and may include flash flooding, heavy rainfall, coastal flooding and erosion, and high winds. The key factors that are keeping this forecast interesting would be the synoptic scale features. Currently, the weekend set up looks as though there will be a low pressure system off shore of the Outer Banks, NC. Along with the low pressure is a stationary front, that will hold its ground from Florida to Maine. This stalled front may drive Joaquin up the East Coast like the GFS is now predicting.

Courtesy of The Weather Channel

Courtesy of The National Weather Service

In the graphic above the islands in red and blue are under a hurricane and tropical storm warning respectively.  

Stay with ForecastGMU for all of your tropical updates!

- Katie Thomas

New Update with NWS Site: What I have been working on this summer

7/7/15: Update! 

Thank you all for all of your support with this new project. The release at 10:00am this morning had its rough patches, but overall the feedback has been positive. Again I suggest ALL of you to check out the new and improved weather.gov. It is definitely a work in progress as code is not always perfect when it is run on a large scale such as this the first time. The bugs are being caught though and the product at least in my opinion is a lot better than it was before. Do you agree or disagree/have your own opinion altogether? Email us at @icons.noaa.gov. I will be checking and cataloging the emails daily and all your comments will be noted. The goal is better product!!!!

-James 


Hello all!

As many of you know, a couple of weeks ago, I started a job at the NOAA in Silver Spring as an intern. This job has many perks. It is so exciting to be able to be on the forefront of all of the nationally based initiatives within the weather field. One of the projects I am personally working on is the revamping of the national weather site, weather.gov, namely the new Icons and Hazard boxes.

Did you notice that thing on the top of weather.gov when you get to the forecast page? 

It is a preview of a new and important change that the site is undergoing to properly try to adjust and serve the people better. In this day of modern technology, people rely on the weather to be fit the new generational demand of fast and efficient while still conveying the necessary information within a web and mobile format. As I have noticed with my time working at NOAA so far, this is not an easy process and it is one that relies heavily on public input.

On Tuesday July 7th, the new phase of weather.gov will be up and running. Some of you might not notice the changes at first, but a lot of you will immediately see the impact of them.

These changes include but are not limited to:

-Updated weather icons photos taken to create higher quality images to help properly convey the expected conditions for that time. Almost all of the weather icons will be updated. A lot of the images now will be actual photographed images of said weather conditions. (Preview of the changes is below)

Notice how a lot of the icons cover a variety of conditions so I apologize if they do not match up exactly. 

Current Condition(s) and/or Forecast	Current icon		New icon
	Day	Night	Day	Night
Fair Clear Fair with Haze Clear with Haze Fair and Breezy Clear and Breezy
A Few Clouds A Few Clouds with Haze A Few Clouds and Breezy
Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy with Haze Partly Cloudy and Breezy
Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy with Haze Mostly Cloudy and Breezy
Overcast Overcast with Haze Overcast and Breezy
Snow Light Snow Heavy Snow Snow Showers Light Snow Showers Heavy Snow Showers Showers Snow Light Showers Snow Heavy Showers Snow Snow Fog/Mist Light Snow Fog/Mist Heavy Snow Fog/Mist Snow Showers Fog/Mist Light Snow Showers Fog/Mist Heavy Snow Showers Fog/Mist Showers Snow Fog/Mist Light Showers Snow Fog/Mist Heavy Showers Snow Fog/Mist Snow Fog Light Snow Fog Heavy Snow Fog Snow Showers Fog Light Snow Showers Fog Heavy Snow Showers Fog Showers Snow Fog Light Showers Snow Fog Heavy Showers Snow Fog Showers in Vicinity Snow Snow Showers in Vicinity Snow Showers in Vicinity Fog/Mist Snow Showers in Vicinity Fog Low Drifting Snow Blowing Snow Snow Low Drifting Snow Snow Blowing Snow Light Snow Low Drifting Snow Light Snow Blowing Snow Light Snow Blowing Snow Fog/Mist Heavy Snow Low Drifting Snow Heavy Snow Blowing Snow Thunderstorm Snow Light Thunderstorm Snow Heavy Thunderstorm Snow Snow Grains Light Snow Grains Heavy Snow Grains Heavy Blowing Snow Blowing Snow in Vicinity
Current Condition(s) and/or Forecast	Current icon		New icon
	Day	Night	Day	Night
Rain Snow Light Rain Snow Heavy Rain Snow Snow Rain Light Snow Rain Heavy Snow Rain Drizzle Snow Light Drizzle Snow Heavy Drizzle Snow Snow Drizzle Light Snow Drizzle Heavy Drizzle Snow
Rain Ice Pellets Light Rain Ice Pellets Heavy Rain Ice Pellets Drizzle Ice Pellets Light Drizzle Ice Pellets Heavy Drizzle Ice Pellets Ice Pellets Rain Light Ice Pellets Rain Heavy Ice Pellets Rain Ice Pellets Drizzle Light Ice Pellets Drizzle Heavy Ice Pellets Drizzle
Freezing Rain Freezing Drizzle Light Freezing Rain Light Freezing Drizzle Heavy Freezing Rain Heavy Freezing Drizzle Freezing Rain in Vicinity Freezing Drizzle in Vicinity
Freezing Rain Rain Light Freezing Rain Rain Heavy Freezing Rain Rain Rain Freezing Rain Light Rain Freezing Rain Heavy Rain Freezing Rain Freezing Drizzle Rain Light Freezing Drizzle Rain Heavy Freezing Drizzle Rain Rain Freezing Drizzle Light Rain Freezing Drizzle Heavy Rain Freezing Drizzle		n/a
Freezing Rain Snow Light Freezing Rain Snow Heavy Freezing Rain Snow Freezing Drizzle Snow Light Freezing Drizzle Snow Heavy Freezing Drizzle Snow Snow Freezing Rain Light Snow Freezing Rain Heavy Snow Freezing Rain Snow Freezing Drizzle Light Snow Freezing Drizzle Heavy Snow Freezing Drizzle		n/a
Ice Pellets Light Ice Pellets Heavy Ice Pellets Ice Pellets in Vicinity Showers Ice Pellets Thunderstorm Ice Pellets Ice Crystals Hail Small Hail/Snow Pellets Light Small Hail/Snow Pellets Heavy small Hail/Snow Pellets Showers Hail Hail Showers
Snow Ice Pellets	n/a	n/a
Current Condition(s) and/or Forecast	Current icon		New icon
	Day	Night	Day	Night
Light Rain Drizzle Light Drizzle Heavy Drizzle Light Rain Fog/Mist Drizzle Fog/Mist Light Drizzle Fog/Mist Heavy Drizzle Fog/Mist Light Rain Fog Drizzle Fog Light Drizzle Fog Heavy Drizzle Fog
Rain Heavy Rain Rain Fog/Mist Heavy Rain Fog/Mist Rain Fog Heavy Rain Fog
Rain Showers Light Rain Showers Light Rain and Breezy Heavy Rain Showers Rain Showers in Vicinity Light Showers Rain Heavy Showers Rain Showers Rain Showers Rain in Vicinity Rain Showers Fog/Mist Light Rain Showers Fog/Mist Heavy Rain Showers Fog/Mist Rain Showers in Vicinity Fog/Mist Light Showers Rain Fog/Mist Heavy Showers Rain Fog/Mist Showers Rain Fog/Mist Showers Rain in Vicinity Fog/Mist (Cloud cover > 60%)
Showers in Vicinity Showers in Vicinity Fog/Mist Showers in Vicinity Fog Showers in Vicinity Haze (Cloud cover < 60%)
Thunderstorm Thunderstorm Rain Light Thunderstorm Rain Heavy Thunderstorm Rain Thunderstorm Rain Fog/Mist Light Thunderstorm Rain Fog/Mist Heavy Thunderstorm Rain Fog and Windy Heavy Thunderstorm Rain Fog/Mist Thunderstorm Showers in Vicinity Light Thunderstorm Rain Haze Heavy Thunderstorm Rain Haze Thunderstorm Fog Light Thunderstorm Rain Fog Heavy Thunderstorm Rain Fog Thunderstorm Light Rain Thunderstorm Heavy Rain Thunderstorm Rain Fog/Mist Thunderstorm Light Rain Fog/Mist Thunderstorm Heavy Rain Fog/Mist Thunderstorm in Vicinity Fog/Mist Thunderstorm Showers in Vicinity Thunderstorm in Vicinity Haze Thunderstorm Haze in Vicinity Thunderstorm Light Rain Haze Thunderstorm Heavy Rain Haze Thunderstorm Fog Thunderstorm Light Rain Fog Thunderstorm Heavy Rain Fog Thunderstorm Hail Light Thunderstorm Rain Hail Heavy Thunderstorm Rain Hail Thunderstorm Rain Hail Fog/Mist Light Thunderstorm Rain Hail Fog/Mist Heavy Thunderstorm Rain Hail Fog/Hail Thunderstorm Showers in Vicinity Hail Light Thunderstorm Rain Hail Haze Heavy Thunderstorm Rain Hail Haze Thunderstorm Hail Fog Light Thunderstorm Rain Hail Fog Heavy Thunderstorm Rain Hail Fog Thunderstorm Light Rain Hail Thunderstorm Heavy Rain Hail Thunderstorm Rain Hail Fog/Mist Thunderstorm Light Rain Hail Fog/Mist Thunderstorm Heavy Rain Hail Fog/Mist Thunderstorm in Vicinity Hail Thunderstorm in Vicinity Hail Haze Thunderstorm Haze in Vicinity Hail Thunderstorm Light Rain Hail Haze Thunderstorm Heavy Rain Hail Haze Thunderstorm Hail Fog Thunderstorm Light Rain Hail Fog Thunderstorm Heavy Rain Hail Fog Thunderstorm Small Hail/Snow Pellets Thunderstorm Rain Small Hail/Snow Pellets Light Thunderstorm Rain Small Hail/Snow Pellets Heavy Thunderstorm Rain Small Hail/Snow Pellets (Cloud cover > 75%)
Current Condition(s) and/or Forecast	Current icon		New icon
	Day	Night	Day	Night
Thunderstorm in Vicinity (Cloud cover 60 - 75%)
Thunderstorm in Vicinity Thunderstorm in Vicinity Fog Thunderstorm in Vicinity Haze (Cloud cover < 60%)
Funnel Cloud Funnel Cloud in Vicinity Tornado/Water Spout		n/a
Tornado
Current Condition(s) and/or Forecast	Current icon		New icon
	Day	Night	Day	Night
Hurricane Warning		n/a		n/a
Hurricane Watch	n/a	n/a		n/a
Tropical Storm Warning		n/a		n/a
Tropical Storm Watch	n/a	n/a		n/a
Tropical Storm Conditions presently exist w/Hurricane Warning in effect	n/a	n/a		n/a
Current Condition(s) and/or Forecast	Current icon		New icon options
	Day	Night	Day	Night
Windy Breezy Fair and Windy
A Few Clouds and Windy
Partly Cloudy and Windy
Mostly Cloudy and Windy
Overcast and Windy
Current Condition(s) and/or Forecast	Current icon		New icon options
	Day	Night	Day	Night
Dust Low Drifting Dust Blowing Dust Sand Blowing Sand Low Drifting Sand Dust/Sand Whirls Dust/Sand Whirls in Vicinity Dust Storm Heavy Dust Storm Dust Storm in Vicinity Sand Storm Heavy Sand Storm Sand Storm in Vicinity
Smoke
Haze		n/a		n/a
Hot		n/a		n/a
Cold		n/a
Blizzard		n/a
Fog/Mist Freezing Fog Shallow Fog Partial Fog Patches of Fog Fog in Vicinity Freezing Fog in Vicinity Shallow Fog in Vicinity Partial Fog in Vicinity Patches of Fog in Vicinity Showers in Vicinity Fog Light Freezing Fog Heavy Freezing Fog

-Dual-Icons-If weather is going to be one way in the morning and another way in the afternoon (as is the way a lot of the time in this area around this time of year) The day is thus divided into 6 hour forecast blocks rather than 12 hour blocks form before. Since weather is quite dynamic, this helps create a more reliable outlook on today's conditions throughout the day, not just at one point. 

Example from today July 6th, notice the lower chance of precipitation in
 the morning with showers changing into a
higher chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 

-Dual-Icons cont.-Changing chance of precipitation (P.O.P)- As the weather changes the chance of measurable precipitation also changes, and thus is not consistent throughout the day. Covering a day’s worth of weather is quite hard within one icon and description, the splitting of said icons will give a more accurate representation of how the chance of precipitation may change throughout the day. Notice the change above in percentages? It is hard to state a precipitation chance for an entire day because it is more than likely that it will only effect a fraction of the day. With higher quality real time outlooks with our models today, our site needs to keep up with the growing demand for updated accurate on the go weather outlooks. The new feature allows for people to plan their day accordingly and regarding whether or not you should bring that umbrella out. 

-Hazard boxes-When you are under a Watch, Warning or an Advisory, with the old site format it would just show up at the top with a connecting link to the statement by the local forecast office describing the event, the outlook, places that will be effected and any potential hazardous conditions regarding this weather event. As great as that might be, this does not usually catch a lot of people's visual attention. By having hazard boxes, it not only shows if your area is under a watch, warning or advisory, the box also covers the time length of the weather hazard length. Below is a previewed example of a hazard box in action. 

Notice how can be more than one weather hazard at once being shown and they may many times overlap. Most importantly, there is an information button which shows the details each watch or warning and the duration, just like the previous format. 

If there is enough of them to create some sort of weather related headline, a message will show up on the side of the 7 day outlook as shown below. 

Since there were many potentially dangerous hazards going on in a relatively short period of time, there is a preview page which describes the significance of all of the hazards. 

Hazard boxes only show up in cases of extreme weather so luckily you probably will not see these for a bit. I guarantee in less than a week you will be able to see these hazard boxes in action.

-Enhancing the mobile site interface to be more user-friendly-This is a long process, by making all of these changes to the website, being able to apply all of these same changes to the mobile site without issue is quite difficult. Many people log into the site, via their phones and tablets. So the mobile site being able to work is crucial to success.

So by tomorrow these changes will go into effect, meaning that the site will change and all of the changes I showed and described above will be visible to the entire public viewing. This will mean that public reception of such changes is absolutely crucial for the success and further implementation of the changes.

Let us know what you think of the changes by emailing us with your comments, concerns and even proposed changes to the site. A lot of weather is about communication to the public and we appreciate each all of your input. I definitely look forward from hearing from all of you. Even if your concern is not exactly regarding the changes I described above, do not be afraid to share your input. 

For all inquiries: Email us at icons.noaa.gov 

Do you want more information? I provided some links that further describes the changes and what we are working on at NOAA. This is just a small step in a larger project called Haz-Simp, which has an ending goal of creating an easier more user friendly way to report weather watches, warnings, and advisories.

Thank you and hope to hear from all of you!

Sources: http://www.weather.gov/eax/pointforecastheadlines
              http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/scn15-26icons.htm

             http://www.weather.gov/eax/pointforecasttextphrase 

-James