ForecastGMU: Tropical Weather Advisory: Hurricane Joaquin

Hurricane Joaquin

**Updates in Red**

Courtesy of NASA

Quick Facts

Location: 10 miles N of Rum Cay Bahamas

Winds: 130 mph

Moving: N at 5 mph

Pressure: 942 mb

Tropical Storm Joaquin underwent a strong period of intensification Tuesday afternoon. Joaquin's surroundings were relieved of high wind shear, allowing for stronger thunderstorms (convection) to form towards the center of the storm. Wednesday morning, Joaquin became the third 2015 Atlantic hurricane and is now a CATEGORY 4 hurricane. As of Friday morning, NASA has detected that Joaquin is going through an eye wall replacement cycle. This is very common in strong, powerful hurricanes. Although it can weaken the intensity of the hurricane, it can also spread hurricane force winds over a larger area.

It is often difficult to predict Atlantic hurricanes landfalls. In the graphic below the colorful lines represent different models' forecasted tracks for Tropical Storm Joaquin. These disagreements in the projected path lead to a large cone of uncertainty (second graphic). Some models keep Joaquin further east, while others have it making impacts anywhere between Cape Hatteras, NC to Long Island, NY. By Wednesday morning, models started to narrow in on an area of impact. However, as of Thursday afternoon models are taking Joaquin's path further out east. Currently, the GFS model is taking the category 4 hurricane up the coast without a east coast landfall. While the NAM is still forecasting for a landfall between the North Carolina and Virginia coast. Current as of Friday afternoon, Joaquin's track has shifted more eastward over the Atlantic Ocean. A United States landfall seems unlikely. Landfall or no landfall, the east coast will feel a variety of impacts. These impacts could and may include flash flooding, heavy rainfall, coastal flooding and erosion, and high winds. The key factors that are keeping this forecast interesting would be the synoptic scale features. Currently, the weekend set up looks as though there will be a low pressure system off shore of the Outer Banks, NC. Along with the low pressure is a stationary front, that will hold its ground from Florida to Maine. This stalled front may drive Joaquin up the East Coast like the GFS is now predicting.