Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Hurricane Cristobal

Tropical Storm Watch: Bermuda
Courtesy of the Weather Channel

Over the past weekend Hurricane Hunters detected a defined center of circulation and officially named it Tropical Storm Cristobal. Cristobal is a very slow moving tropical storm, but it will increase forward momentum when it crosses the Jet Stream and a high pressure system aloft over the Atlantic Ocean. Cristobal is only predicted to become a weak category 1 hurricane. Currently, its track is projected to fall in-between the East Coast of the United States and Bermuda, then turning eastward north of Bermuda. Although Cristobal's predicted path poses no immediate threat to the United States or Bermuda, due to strong winds, later into the week there are threats of rip currents along the coasts from New Jersey to Florida. Also, coastal inundation may be a problem along the Northeastern coast of Florida, the Outer Banks and Southeastern Virginia during high tide. Presently Cristobal has drenched parts of the Bahamas, dumping approximately 12 inches of rainfall on the Turks and Caicos. By Friday morning Cristobal will have moved well into the Atlantic Ocean and away from land.

Courtesy of the Weather Channel
Quick Facts
Location: 435 miles SW of Bermuda
Winds: 80 mph
Moving: N at 12 mph
Pressure: 983 mb



-Katie

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Polar Vortex Summer Edition-Explained

It’s been really cool overall these past several weeks in this area on average.

A needed relief and change to the normality of deathly humidity and scorching hot temperatures that usually dominate this area’s summer climate. The reason simplistically of why this is is due to the fact of dynamic atmospheric motion that has brought the cooler pockets of air down from Northwestern Canada to the Lower Midwest and Mid Atlantic regions. In return though, the upper Midwest and Northeast is seeing a higher influx of severe storms while the West is scorching with record highs and worsening the already costly drought in places like California and Arizona.

All of this can be explained by a deep trough in the jet stream that was first spotted back in early June; though it has taken full effect within the past couple of weeks. Why did the dip take place in the first place? 
The Dark Blue is below average and the Orange and Red is above average (NOAA)

Many have pointed to below average temperatures this summer as a direct resultant to a well-below average winter. Peak ice coverage for the Great Lakes was in Mid-March, which is much later than it normally has been in past years. It was also much higher too with almost 94 percent of the Great Lakes being frozen over. The slow melt causes cooler temperature to settle within the regions surrounding them.

Peak Ice Extension for Winter 2014

Another reason though for the cool down this summer is climate change and the warming of the Arctic region. The persistent high pressure systems in place and large temperature swings are all within the climate model predictions. Though quantifying exact causation is difficult and weather is always multi-causal all signs seem to point in the direction of global warming.  This might surprise some people as global warming may not apply to everyone (the ones with cooler temperatures). On a larger scale though, the global temperatures this year are higher than normal; especially in the Arctic regions near Northern Canada, Alaska and Siberia. This is causing major concerns on topics like melting of permafrost which can cause land to collapse and crumble in on itself.

How is this happening you might ask? Pretty simply actually! Since the oceans are warming up at a certain rate, it affects temperature differentiation between what is considered “cold” regions and what are “warm” regions. This differentiation is why we have weather fronts on a regional level due to this separation of air masses. When a transporting body is slowly warmed though, like the ocean per say. It can greatly affect the larger scale wave patterns that are known as Rossby waves. These waves tend to be greater in size when the temperature differences are less and meander. This combined with a concept called ‘blocking’ where cold or warm air stays in one location for a very long time creates a situation where the colder Arctic air which is usually up in Northern Canada has been transported down to the Midwest in Mid-Atlantic while the warmer air has been shifted to replace the colder air moving South. This has made for temperature on average to be much warmer and drier for the western half of the country and much cooler and wetter for the eastern half of the country.This summer so far has produced weather so below average that the month of July was the coldest month to date in over a 100 years for Lower Midwest. 

Though this is not the only reason that this summer has been so cool; a typhoon that hit Japan in the middle of last month caused temperatures in the Midwest to be much cooler than the normal average.

Weather is not a simple situation, things happen for many different reasons or a combination of them. So it is very hard to put your foot down on one hard answer and say “this caused that”. As an observer though, you have to be deductive yet aware of all possible outcomes. This polar vortex is a perfect example of how climate change could play a role in either giving us a nice break from the summer or a worsening drought and wildfires. This is why everyone needs to start paying attention to climate change, because these issues affect our daily livelihood.

Any questions? I will answer any and all questions if you comment below.


Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Hurricanes Iselle and Julio: Making History

UPDATES AS OF 1:00 PM August 8 in RED
Courtesy of the Weather Channel
          Hurricanes Iselle and Julio are currently on track to make landfall over the Hawaiian Islands two to three days apart. This rare occurrence hasn't occurred since the year 1982, when Hawaii was hit ten days apart with Tropical Depression Daniel and Tropical Storm Gilma. Hurricane Daniel formed off the coast of Mexico, but as the storm moved westward it began to weaken. Ultimately on July 22nd, Daniel was downgraded to a tropical depression and begun to dissipate between the Big Island of Hawaii and Maui. Ten days later, August 1st, Tropical Storm Gilma brushed by the southern point of the Big Island. 

          Currently, category 1 Hurricanes Iselle and Julio are both have projected impacts threatening Hawaii. These back-to-back impacts are predicted to occur within two or three days of each other. Lead Meteorologist of the Weather Channel, Kevin Roth, says two tropical cyclones directly impacting Hawaii within two to three days "is unprecedented in the satellite era".  Meteorologists will have their eyes on these two tropical cyclones for the next couple of days. 

Tropical Storm Warning: the Big IslandMaui, Oahu, and Kauai


Courtesy of the Weather Channel

Hurricane Iselle
              Hurricane Iselle is the eastern Pacific's third major hurricane. At maximum strengthen winds Iselle was a category 4 hurricane, but now has been downgraded to a category 1 hurricane. It is predicted that by Thursday morning (8/7) Iselle will be downgraded to a tropical storm. Ultimately this means Iselle will make landfall as a tropical storm. By Thursday night, Hawaii should start to feel some of Iselle's affects, such as heavy rain bands, flash flooding, rough surf, and stronger wind speeds. 
Courtesy of the Weather Channel
Quick Facts
Location: 5 miles east of Pahala, Hawaii
Winds: 50 mph
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Pressure: 1003 mb



Hurricane Julio

                  Hurricane Julio is the eastern Pacific's fifth hurricane. We are still expecting to see Julio intensify as it moves over warmer water and into a moist atmosphere supplied by Hurricane Iselle's moisture. But before impacting Hawaii, Julio will move into a cooler and more stable atmosphere where it will start to weaken. This means, ultimately Julio will make landfall as a tropical storm. Just as Iselle leaves the Island chain, Julio will begin to move in by Sunday morning. On Sunday morning, Hawaii will begin to see heavy rain bands come ashore, coastal flooding, strong wind speeds, and rough surf.

Courtesy of the Weather Channel
Julio Quick Facts
Location: 870 miles ESE from Hilo, Hawaii
Winds: 105 mph
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Pressure: 966 mb

-Katie

Monday, August 4, 2014

Topic I: Geo-Engineering and Land Ocean Interactions

Can humans change the weather?

This question is crazy right? The answer should be an absolute no. We have no power against Mother Nature. The sure energy it takes to create a severe thunderstorm, tornado, hurricane or any other massive storm system is equivalent to the energy capacity of the entire world’s weapon arsenal. So the answer would in fact be no, they cannot; at least for now.

What about the regional/global climate?

With furthering evidence that humans are in fact warming the Earth due to the emissions of carbon emissions into the atmosphere, there is much more certainty in the anthropocentric impact in the climate change equation. While not being completely adamant that that is the case, an overwhelming amount of time and research has gone into proving that hypothesis, especially over the past 20 years regarding the overall scope of this shift in the climate and also the likelihood that it is not a “natural fluctuation”, which is what a lot of climate change skeptics like to point to.

So if climate change exists, and it is because of humans, what can we do as humans to stop it?

This is the main question that plagues not only scientists who study the weather and its effects, but policy makers, economists, and even everyday citizens. The effort to make things more ‘green’ with the hopes of improving the overall deteriorating environment has been well noted. Though most of it is being done completely in vain because of the counter intuitive measures of developing countries like China and India and a refusal of what is being considered as drastic emission cuts by the United States.  Why this is happening is a whole other topic. The answer to the question becomes completely simple when you alleviate the political and economic ramifications of these potential decisions. Stop using fossil fuels, use cleaner bio-fuels, finance implementation of green energy even in developing countries, adapt to the new climate patterns effectively and the mitigate/reverse the effects of what is already being done through geo-engineering.

This article is highlighting the last of those options. What is geo-engineering?

Geo-engineering is defined as “the deliberate and large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climatic system with the aim of reducing global warming”. Through the eyes of policy makers, it is known as a potential third/alternative option when dealing with global warming with mitigation and adaption being the first two. There are several kinds of geo-engineering, though the main two studied methods are solar radiation management and greenhouse gas remediation. Below is a brief description of all three.

Solar Radiation Management - The goal for these methods is to produce a higher overall albedo to block direct radiation from the sun. Thus, this method is supposed to directly cool the Earth. The science behind this method is sound, as proven by any kind of volcanic eruption, or a cloudy day in general. The less sunlight that gets through to the ground and the more that gets reflected back out of the atmosphere, the cooler the ground temperature is. There are several different subsections of this method, including cloud seeding (spraying silver iodide or any other chemical which can act as a cloud condensation nuclei), ocean sulfur cycle enhancement (enhancing the already natural sulfuric cycle in the Southern Ocean to increase albedo), and the production of stratospheric aerosols. This does not include any space or terrestrial methods to increase the albedo.

Carbon Sequestration-This is another name for Greenhouse Gas Remediation. This method is meant to directly remove Carbon Dioxide, Methane and other greenhouse gases from the atmosphere using direct and indirect methods. This includes carbon capture and storage, air storage, and bio energy with carbon capture. Iron Fertilization is a method most widely known and used in the field to help capture and effectively use excess carbon dioxide. In basic terms, it is the introduction of iron in the ocean to produce a phytoplankton plume and produces mass photosynthetic activity.

The issues that plagues this method of combating climate change are:

1.      How are these measures going to carried out?
2.      Who will have control of this potential “weather changing technology”?
3.      When are we going to start implementing/field testing this technology?
4.      Does it really work?

So humans cannot control the weather, or can they? This can still be debated (see Rapid City flood); the fact is though, is we are developing technology now that can help combat the changes that climate change will bring.

I can try to answer the above hypothetical questions in another article, this is more meant to be an overview of a relatively unknown topic to the outside world. Want more info? Let me know! 

-James

Bertha

Hurricane Bertha
Update: Bertha is now a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph.

Courtesy of the Weather Channel

Quick Facts:
Location: East of the Bahamas, 180 miles east of Eleuthera Island 
Wind: 75 mph
Moving: NNE at 20 mph
Pressure: 1001 mb

            Tropical Storm Bertha formed late Thursday night (7/31) east southeast of Barbados and passed over the Lesser Antilles causing only minor damages. Bertha has the potential to become the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season's second hurricane. Hurricane hunters reported Sunday evening that Bertha's winds are becoming stronger. Bertha is projected to strengthen by Tuesday evening after it passes over the warmer Gulf Stream. The good news is Bertha is predicted to cause minimal damage when it's path passes between the East Coast and Bermuda. Currently, there are tropical storm warnings in effect off the East Coast of the U.S., but there are no warnings or watches for dry land. 

Bertha's History: Bertha dumped 8+ inches of rain as she made her way over regions of Puerto Rico. 

Future Track: Bertha is projected to pass between Bermuda and the East Coast of the U.S. Some models predict that it will pass over Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone late Thursday afternoon (8/7). 

Courtesy of the Weather Channel