Winter Storm Octavia: LIVE

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR OUR AREA FROM MONDAY 4PM UNTIL TUESDAY 12PM EST

7:00pm update: About 1-2 inches of snow has fallen on the ground. The roads are snow filled but not as bad as I thought. As long as you take it easy they are still drivable. Snow will continue through the overnight hours and is set to pick up in about a couple of hours. The temperature is currently sitting at 13 degrees and dropping overnight.

No word on if Mason has classes for tomorrow. They will probably announce their decision a little after midnight if I had to guess.

Virginia getting the brunt of the storm. 7pm current radar (Intellicast)

2:30pm update: ALL MASON EVENING CLASSES AFTER 4:30PM ARE NOW CANCELLED AND OFFICES WILL CLOSE AT 5:00PM 

Current conditions at 2:30pm via Weather Underground

Snowflakes has begun falling in Fairfax!! This snow is very light and due to the very dry air, it will have trouble reaching the ground for some time. Currently the dew point is sitting at -8 degrees Fahrenheit which means that the air is not saturated. This will change later this afternoon as the system really moves into our region.  Watch for possible light accumulation to begin within the next couple of hours. Though this is not guaranteed. 

This is a good time to remind everyone to send your snow pictures in so we can feature them on our site! 

12pm update: Currently the temperature is 14 degrees F. Clouds have moved into the region.  Currently the system is producing light to moderate snow in areas South and West of the area. Areas such as Harrisonburg, Blacksburg and Roanoke are reporting light snow. Minimal accumulation though in these areas. This will change in the coming hours. Currently, the heaviest of precipitation is falling in Kentucky and Tennessee in the form of mixed precipitation and snow. The low currently sits in the Gulf Coast and is slowly strengthening. Though snow flurries may start this afternoon, do not expect accumulation to pick up until much later this evening.

Current Conditions (via Intellicast)

Not much has changed in terms of the forecast. I'm sticking with my initial prediction with snowfall totals of 5-8 inches. Expect the heaviest of precipitation from 11pm-4am. 

It is very possible that evening classes/activities could be cancelled. Stay tuned to our Twitter as we will be relaying information regarding cancellations or delays as soon as it is public. If classes are not cancelled be careful driving out of campus as even if roads look okay and treated they may become slick. 

Remember again to move your car out of the main parking lots to Rappahannock Parking Deck starting at 3pm so that the parking lots can be properly treated before the storm begins. 

10pm Sunday: A dramatic northerly shift has revamped the possibility that the DC area will receive a real legitimate snowstorm this season. Following the release of the 12Z model runs, a new scenario for storm development is allowing higher snowfall totals to lie within the realm of possibility. Without going to in depth about the model comparisons; needless to say the models are in relative agreement about the development and snowfall predictions of this system. 

Tonight the record lows and high wind chills will continue the currently trending pattern of a massive trough that has filtered Arctic air directly into the region. This ingredient of the cold air mass will play a key role on the impact of the storm as a whole.  

Currently the storm is forming within the South Central part of the country, burdening millions with the threat of snow, sleet and freezing rain. This is a very classic scenario for a heavy hitting winter storm for us. The storm will then move along the Southern US moving eastward towards the Gulf Coast where it will gain moisture and begin to move up the coastline. A ridge of warm moist air will be prominent around a newly forming low pressure and will produce rain and strong storms for states such as Mississippi and Alabama. Eventually tomorrow the low will situate itself off the Atlantic Coast and begin to strengthen. By the time this happens the system moves in from the South and West affecting areas such as Richmond and Charlottesville before reaching the DC Metro area by the afternoon.

Timing of this storm is not exactly ideal. The main onset of the storm is early afternoon. Though major snowfall is set to start around the end of rush hour or 6-7pm. By this time the low will have strengthened and heavier snowfalls will occur after and through the night. The majority of the snowfall totals will most likely be within the times of 8pm-6am Tuesday with a chance of snow showers lingering afterwards until midday Tuesday when the clouds start to clear.

So what we are looking at is a storm with the potential to bring significant snowfall totals. There is a very evident uncertainty with predicting winter storms such as this as snowfall totals take into account predicted moisture in the air and storm track in order to simulate a scenario moving forward with time. That being said, the scenario that I just mentioned is one that is extremely likely of occurring.

Here is a look at the likelihood of snowfall total outcomes (via WPC by 7am Tuesday)

The probability of snowfall totals higher than 2 inches

Probability of 4 inches+

Probability of 6+ inches

Probability fo 8+ inches

Probability of 12+ inches

So as you can see from the maps it is looking more and more probable that snowfalls will be high. 

School/Classes: I will put the likelihood of classes being completely cancelled on Tuesday at 70 percent with the likelihood of at least a delay at 90 percent. Unless the storm is a complete bust expect there be to be some action by the school.

Impact: Medium-High-luckily this storm will be all snow and due to the cold temperatures it will be the more powdery variety of snow. This does not mean that driving will be any easier or safer. Please use all precautions necessary and do your best to stay off the roads unless they are plowed or it is some kind of emergency. The temperatures being below 20 degrees during the night will mean that even if the roads are treated, snow will still be able to stick with relative ease and will require plowing. There is a small chance of people losing power only if tree branches have been weakened due to the constant amount of high wind and are near power lines.

Timeline:

Sunday Night: Winds will die down significantly after midnight, though temperatures will remain in the single digits and wind chills will remain well below zero. Clouds will begin to come in in the very early hours Monday morning.

Monday Morning: Partly Cloudy skies will become Mostly Cloudy by mid morning with temperatures not making it past 20 until the afternoon.

Monday Afternoon: Snow flurries may begin earlier with the system moving in, but snowfall will truly begin by 3-4pm. Not much will be sticking at first.

Monday Evening: Snow will start to pick up around 7pm with winds coming out of the South pulling moisture in. Expect a solid layer of powder on the ground by nightfall. Temperatures will remain stable around 20 degrees.

Monday Night: The temperature will remain stable as snow will really start to ramp up after midnight into early Tuesday. Snow totals by sunrise Tuesday will be around 6 inches throughout the metro area.

Tuesday Morning: Snow showers will remain throughout the morning but the possibility of more significant accumulation decreases tremendously after 7am.  By mid morning the storm has all but moved out of the region. Temperatures will begin to rise as the clouds will start to clear.

Tuesday Midday: Partly cloudy skies with a High near 30 with winds out of the North at 5-10mph.

Total snowfall accumulation: 5-8 inches. Anything less than 5 I am considering a bust in this scenario. Do not be surprised if more than 8 inches is on the ground Tuesday morning either. I am still being a bit of skeptic when it comes to higher totals as this area is very prone for bust scenarios. So in this case I will settle with a more conservative approach. 

We will be going LIVE tomorrow at 12pm with updates throughout the day. Stay tuned. For more updates check our Twitter and Facebook. Thank you!!