Winter Storm Juno

WINTER STORM ALERT!

The DC area could be on the southern end of potentially one of the more memorable storms in the past couple of years. Due to its pure uncharacteristic nature in formation and outlandish snowfall predictions, there has been a media frenzy in the past 24 hours leading up to the eve of the storm's development. Without getting into why the storm is so much different than winter storms in the past, what is prudent to understand is that this storm will cause blizzard conditions for millions and moderate to heavy snow for the entire Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions.

Now to where we stand in all of this mess. First realize that this storm is a two part equation. The first part is the clipper system which is a fast moving swath of cold air with snow bands out in front of it. The snow will coincide with the rapid cooling tonight, and will ramp up tomorrow morning. At its height snowfall rates of half an inch to an inch per hour would not be out of the question. Again this system is very quick moving, and like the last system that came through the area on Friday into Saturday, it will start as a rain/snow mix. As the temperature drops though snow will begin to stick more rapidly. Road conditions and visibility may be a factor with this storm. The initial storm will move in this evening from the Northwest with snow beginning in Western Maryland and moving across the mountains and into this area.

Currently it looks like the switch over to snow will be well after midnight, but it could very well be before depending on how quickly surface temperature drops.

Now the tough part about this storm is part two. Part two looks like it will miss us completely and only affect areas to our North and East, such as Annapolis, Baltimore and Ocean City. This is where the strong coastal low materializes off of Cape Hatteras and a jet of moisture will bring copious amounts of snow to areas near the shoreline. This includes Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts  etc. These areas will also be experiencing very high winds as high as 60 mph, which is considered blizzard conditions. Snow totals for these regions will be in the feet not inches. This low is set to form late Monday night into Tuesday. Whether or not this will affect our area is still in question. Most of the models point to a minimal impact for the immediate DC metro area, but do not be surprised if another inch or two is on the ground before it is all finished.

Here is the timeline for the storm and with corresponding maps showing you the progression of the storm (Via NOAA)

Sunday Evening: Temperatures will remain in the 40s until around 6pm. At this point they will start dropping right around the time rain starts to move in. Rain will begin as light drizzle. Winds will shift out of the East at 5-10mph.

Sunday Night: Rain will continue, though flakes may mix in at times. By 10pm the temperature will be in the mid to low 30s and accumulation may start occurring especially on soft surfaces.









Monday Early: By about 2:00 am EST, it will be all snow for most of the region with the exception of possibly the city and eastern and southern suburbs which may stay all rain until this time. Temperatures will be in the low 30s, snow will be relatively light. At this time maybe a half of inch of snow on the ground. 









Monday Morning: By 6:00 EST, snow will be falling more steadily and winds out of the ESE will accompany the heaviest of the accumulations. Temperatures will remain in the 30s with wind chills in the low to mid 20s.










Monday Mid-Day: Temperatures will have warmed slightly, though no switch over to rain. Snow will still fall intermittently throughout the day in the form of snow showers. Look by this time for total accumulations to be around 1 inch.








Monday Afternoon/Evening: Snow showers will dissipate but flurries may still remain until sundown. Winds will start gusting at 20-25mph more heavily out of the North and temperature will drop once again to the upper 20s with wind chills in the mid teens.

Monday Night: The second half of the storm will produce bands of snow showers that may be moderate at times. Temperatures will stay in the upper 20s and winds will stay gusting out of the North. Another 1 inch of snow expected.









Tuesday Morning: This storm will have departed by this point. Leaving behind brisk temperatures, gusty winds and hopefully a decent amount of powder. Nothing too much to worry about for this area.

Impact: Low/Medium – I would expect the roads to be very slick and dangerous especially has the storm intensifies Monday night. And even tomorrow morning commutes may be affected due to reduced visibility

Total snowfall prediction for Fairfax: 2-3 inches

Confidence: Medium/Medium High

48 hour Snow Forecast for this storm (Via GFS Model)

- Jeremy Goldstein&James Luehrs