2014-2015 Winter Breakdown

As fun as they were at first, with spring just around the corner and temperatures reaching the 60's, we can finally put behind us all those walks across campus filled with snow and ice, snowball fights, and anxiously waiting to see if classes would be cancelled. Before we do, let's look back and reflect on the harsh winter we experienced this year. Here is a breakdown by storm.

Winter Storm Juno: Juno was our first storm of the season with a major impact. Officially, Reagan National received 0.6 inches from the storm, Dulles 2.0 inches, and BWI 1.0 inches. The snowfall totals across the area ranged anywhere from 1-4 inches. Fairfax actually received 4.3 inches because heavier snow bands set up overnight. This storm surprised most of our region. At first, this storm seemed to be a simple clipper that would bring in could air and set us up for a couple inches of snow. The forecast for this storm changed dramatically on Sunday night when the storm track shifted north and transferred it's energy into a huge storm that formed over the Ocean. This set up a situation for a two part storm. The first part of the storm was the clipper. The storm shifted north which meant temps ended up being milder than expected. This resulted in less accumulation in some areas than expected out of the first part of the storm. The second part of the storm. There was a lull in the precipitation between the first half of the storm and the second half of the storm as the clipper dissipated over us. The second wave began Monday night into Tuesday morning as the coastal storm developed.

The very impressive Wind Field of Winter Storm Juno shows how powerful it really was

How did we do on our prediction for this storm? Although it was a complicated forecast, we were pretty much spot on. We predicted 2-3 inches in Fairfax. Because of some heavier bands in the first part of the storm, we observed totals slightly higher than expected here in Fairfax. We also mentioned that some areas may not get much of anything . Overall our prediction was very accurate.

Winter Storm Octavia: Octavia was our second major storm of the season. Officially, Reagan National Airport received 4.7 inches, Dulles 3.9 inches, and BWI 3.8 inches, This storm came up from the south and dropped 3-5 inches of snow across our region. Temperatures were below freezing throughout the entire storm which resulted in a lot of accumulation

A look at the aftermath of Winter Storm Octavia at the White House

Did we get this storm right? We were accurate on some aspects of this storm. Just like we predicted, this storm provided significant accumulation that caused major delays and cancellations. There were two main aspects that we did not predict. The first aspect that we did not predict was there was a dry slot in this storm. We predicted heavy bands of snow between 10 PM and midnight. During this period there was less moisture than expected so snow totals were lower than we expected in the morning. We also predicted that this would be a powdery snow that would accumulate quickly. When temperatures are as cold as they were during this storm, powdery snow is likely. That was not the case for this storm and that resulted in lower than predicted snow totals. Overall we did get the timeline correct but we were a little lower than our range. We predicted snow totals would be more in the 5-8 range with anything below 5 inches a bust. This storm did under perform a little bit but it still caused a significant impact.

Winter Storm Pandora: Pandora arrived on the night of Saturday February, 21st. Officially, Reagan National Airport received 2.6 inches, Washing Dulles International airport 8.9 inches (a daily record), and Baltimore Washington International Marshal Airport 6.3 inches.. This storm ended up having a pretty significant impact on this area. Areas to the north ended up getting more snow as predicted.

Winter Storm Pandora caused drivers to slow on I-81 near Winchester

How Did we do on our prediction for this storm? Although it was a complicated forecast, we were pretty much spot on. We predicted 3-6 inches in Fairfax. Snow totals in Fairfax ranged everywhere from 3 inches to 8 inches in some spots. Southern Fairfax county got around 4 inches where areas in the western part of the county received around 8 inches of snow. Our forecast was pretty accurate for this forecast. Some areas ended up with a little more than expected but overall our forecast was pretty much spot on for this storm.

Winter Storm Thor: Winter Storm Thor arrived on the night of Wednesday March 4th and went into the day Thursday. Temperatures during the day Wednesday were still in the low 40's so the storm began as rain. The storm quickly switched over to a mix and then to snow over night Wednesday into Thursday. The snow began falling rapidly as very heavy bands came across our region. This was quite a storm for March, Anywhere from 4-10 inches fell across our region during this storm. All three airports established new daily snowfall records.

Reagan National Airport- 4+ inches - setting a new daily record for march 5, passing the previous record of 4.4 inches set in 188

Dulles International Airport- 9.4 inches, a record for March 5 crushing the previous record of 1 inch from 2001

Baltimore-Washington International Airport logged 6.2 inches, beating its record for march 5 of 4.0 inches from 1902.

Near white-out conditions on the National Mall during Winter Storm Thor

So how did we do? Once again this storm behaved pretty much how we thought it would. The uncertainty in this forecast was that it was on the backside of a storm. It started off as rain and we received the back end of it as it turned to snow. The models for this storm were in disagreement on when this changeover would take place. The switch happened pretty much when we expected it . Some bands dropped heavier snow than we thought. The city of Fairfax received 6 inches of snow. Overall this storm behaved exactly how we predicted it and the snow total in the city of Fairfax was right in the middle of the 5-7 inch range that we expected.

So how did we do overall? For the most part we got the forecast relatively within the range of snowfall for the entirety of major storms that came through the DC area. There were a couple that were troublesome due to their last minute changing nature. In the end though forecasting these storms is always a learning experience and a task that is tough as it is enjoyable.

In the beginning of the season, James Luehrs did a pre-winter forecast where we gave a preview of this Winter to come. So how did he do with that seasonal forecast prediction?

(Note: All of these totals and averages are for Fairfax, VA)

Overall Temperature:

Prediction: Slightly below average, but overall warmer than last year.

Actual:Average High temp 

    Winter 2014/2015: 41.2 F

    Normal Average: 46.4 F

    Winter 2013/2014: 42.4 F

As you can see, it was slightly below average, but this winter was in fact colder on average than last year's winter if you can believe it! This was mostly due to the very mild start to winter last year and the relatively mild end to winter.

Snowstorms Amount:

Prediction: 3-5 snowstorms with no "big one" with a strong possibility of an ice storm

Actual: 4 snowstorms and none of them over a foot. There were some storms with mixed precipitation including one in which sleet and freezing rain was the main form of precipitation.

Pretty much spot on on this one. Storm tracks were just not conducive for the big blizzard that we sometimes receive in this region. Most of the heavier snowfall amounts were well into the Northeast.

Snowfall total:

Prediction: 18-24 inches with higher amounts to our North and West

Actual: Approximately 30 inches with higher amounts to the West and North.

So a little off on that prediction, but that was due to some late developing snowstorms that really put a jolt in our overall seasonal snowfall total.

This winter was definitely exciting for us at ForecastGMU, the constant stream of winter weather provided ample opportunity for us to test our forecast skill and we gained a steady stream of followers as well. We hope to keep you up to date this Spring and will continue to get new articles out.

Thank you all so much for the support!